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Jan 30th:
Closing Read
The
middle short signal at 83.63 at 10:30am achieved its plus a buck
target of 82.62 during the last hour today. The Primary is
now at -3143, signal weight closed at -1970 and the change on the
last bar was 1.29. While the Primary is not yet fully extended
on the down cycle, the change on the bar being +1.2 indicates that
on Monday the Primary will want to rise again. Today's middle
signal made its profit target but as previously stated, this only
happens 50% of the time for middle signals.
Jan 30th:
Short Signal Confirmed at 10:30 @ SPY 83.62
The
middle short signal has confirmed at 83.62. If you play this
signal for a buck, enter a GTC cover trade at 82.62. (This will be the last
post until after the close as I have appointments all day)
Jan 30th:
Early Enter Short
An
early enter short signal has been issued that may confirm at 10:30am
is signal weight is less than -100. As mentioned previously,
middle signals are not as reliable as pure signals mainly because
they occur well past the initial slope change which is the ideal
time to execute a reversal trade.
Jan 30th:
Opening Read
Signal
weight on the Secondary of -100 turns it over and this will generate
a middle short signal on the Primary today. Middle short signals
are not as reliable as a pure signal because the Secondary can turn
back positive again and the signal will be out of confirmation.
Typically, middle signal work only 50% of the time as compared
to a pure signal that works nearly 85% of the time.
Signal
weight thus far this morning (9:40) is +715, the Primary is +5000
and the change on this bar is +139 which is why the orange line
is moving up rather than down.
Jan 29th:
Closing Read
The
Primary has declined from +12,000 to +6658 and is declining still.
Signal weight is -2437 and the change on this bar is beginning
to diminish.
It will take at least another day for the current down cycle
to complete itself. Given the strong negative signal weight
today, a slope change on the Secondary is possible tomorrow. Signal
weight already being excessive at -2400, and the change on the bar
approaching single digits, one would expect to see the orange line
rise tomorrow while the Primary is still declining. If it
starts rising in the morning, SPY would probably fill the opening
gap from today.
The
MOST IMPORTANT data point that readers should take away from yesterday
and today's action on the Primary is the fact, once again, that
when the Primary is fully extended either up or down, and it is
impossible for it to not change direction, great trades in the opposite
direction are identified. Two days ago we said that any move
to new highs in the last uptrend would be unsustainable and good
sales (jan27, 1pm post). Selling new highs yesterday, especially late in the
day, was the desired tactic when we KNEW it was IMPOSSIBLE for the
Primary to continue to rise any further.
These
points in time are Balloons under water and have big price reversal
potential. If you've been watching these pages for a couple
of weeks, several such points in time have been identified. If
you were running the Delineator, you would be seeing this happen
in real time. Playing reversals off a slope change up or down
on the Primary, especially when it's fully extended, are very
low risk trades. Setting your price objectives are your
own business. While the Delineator can tell you before
something happens, it's not designed to tell you when to
take your profits. If you have no idea how to set price level
targets, then forget about playing reversals and just wait for the
pure signals and trade for a buck.
Jan 29th:
11am Exit Long Confirmed
As
predicted, the exit signal confirmed. Remember, the Delineator
does not intend for you to exit your long position at the exit long
signal. You should have already exited prior to the slope
change as when you sell is your exit own strategy (unless you're
using the Plus a Buck strategy). The Delineator provides directional
information and origination of new trends. The Primary is
now neutral as the negative slope is not confirmed by the Secondary.
If the Secondary turns over later today or tomorrow, a middle
short signal will be issued, otherwise assuming the Secondary is
still positively sloped, the next signal will be an enter long. At
the time of the slope change today, the Primary was +12,172; it
should now move back toward zero. Any move by SPY toward the
highs yesterday can be shorted as the Primary shouldn't turn
over for several days.
Jan 29th:
10:30 Early Exit Long
The
Primary has issued an early exit long signal (which is a slope change
down on the Primary) that will confirm at 11am as expected.
Jan 29th:
Opening Read
As
stated last evening, the Primary is fully extended up at +11,800.
Signal weight cannot be high enough today to prevent the Primary
from rising, hence yesterday's closing levels are unsustainable.
A slope change ending this up cycle is expected this morning.
It may be possible for the Secondary to turn back over
today in which case we'll get another short signal.
At
the opening, signal weight is -1400, the change on the bar is -214,
a slope change down is expect within 1 hour.
Jan 28th:
Closing Read
The
Primary is fully extended up at +11,800, closing signal weight is
+2700 and the change on the last bar was-4.0. Just as the
Primary was fully extended during the down cycle on 1/15, it is
now fully extended up at +11,800 with the orange line declining.
Regardless of what happens in the world, over the next two
days the Primary must decline indicating that SPY will retrace as
well. With the Secondary now up and at +135, the Primary can
decline and set up for another long signal in a few days. A
slope change ending this signal is expected tomorrow.
Jan 28th:
10:15am
Signal
weight +2227, Primary +5685, change on the bar +21. Typically
strong signal weight is +-1500, anything over 1500 is excessively
strong and unsustainable for more than a day or two. With
+2227 and a change of only +21 on the slope of the Primary means
that any drop in signal weight will turn the slope increasingly
toward zero at an expanding rate. (THIS IS THE LAST POST UNTIL
THE CLOSE AS I HAVE MEETINGS)
Jan 28th:
Opening Read
Pre-opening,
SPY is being push higher on exogenous events. The Plus a Buck
target will be exceeded on the opening. The Primary is +4766
and will want to begin to decline as it will take ever increasing
signal weight to keep it rising.
At
the opening, the Plus a Buck target exited at 86.38 from 85.06.
Signal weight is +1202, the Primary +5165 and the change on
the opening bar is -18.0
9:45:
signal weight +2170, Primary +5208, change on bar +24
Jan 27th:
Closing Read
Continuing
on the post immediately below, at the close the Primary was +4765
signal weight was +1440 and the Deln change during the last
bar was -13. To keep rising tomorrow, the Primary will need
ever increasingly strong signal weight, otherwise it will turn
over very quickly and potentially trigger a short signal as the
Secondary can turn back negative quite easily.
Jan 27th:
1:00pm
If
you were running the software, you'd see in the Delineator stats
windows that the change on the Deln last bar is -5.29 while the
signal weight is +1500. This is seen in the orange line declining.
With respect to a long signal, when the change on the Deln
during the recent bar is negative while signal weight is strongly
positive, you have the beginnings of the exhaustion of the current
cycle. The Primary is now +2553, having risen from -10,000.
It takes energy to move the Primary and when that energy is
spent, the slope will change. Hence, for this signal, with
our knowledge that the Primary is ending its cycle, we can expect
the recent highs to hold below the most recent double chevron down
at yesterday's high and the signal likely not to achieve its plus a buck
target unless SPY is driven by exogenous events...and even then
those highs will be unsustainable and good sales.
Jan 27th:
11:30am
Once
again signal weight has flipped back position and stands at +1230
placing the middle long signal back in confirmation. The Primary
is now at +800 and rising.
Jan 27th:
10:45am
Signal
weight has flipped around from +1100 to +100 all morning, sending
the signal in and out of confirmation. The Primary is now
at +31, having risen from -10,000 over the past 6 days. As
stated previously, the Primary cannot turn over today unless signal
weight turns moderately negative (-750+-)
Jan 27th:
Opening Read
Even
though the middle long signal issued yesterday was out of confirmation
(gray rather than green) at the close, the signal is still nonetheless
still active and may yet make its buck. An exit long signal
can only come if the Primary turns over which won't happen unless
there's moderately negative signal weight for several hours. Until
that happens the behavior of SPY should hold the lows and make at
least one more run to the highs.
10am:
Signal weight of +880 is needed to keep the Secondary up.
The signal has gone back into confirmation and the Primary
is now -480 and unless we get negative signal weight today, it cannot
turn over until tomorrow.
10:10am:
Signal weight has now declined to +290 and the signal is again
out of confirmation.
Jan 26th:
Closing Read
The
middle long signal fell out of confirmation after the slope of the
Secondary turned negative again (read previous post). The
Primary closed at -1700 up from -10,000 and is still rising. It
is possible for the Secondary to turn up tomorrow which would generate
yet another middle signal which, as previously described, are not
typically reliable signals.
Jan 26th:
2:30pm
Signal
weight has moderated back from +2400 to +700 over the past several
hours taking the middle signal out of confirmation. Such are the
risks, as identified earlier today, with middle signals and why,
typically, one should avoid them. A
pure signal is one where the Secondary cannot change slope creating
a better, stronger signal. The Primary continues to rise and
is at -3050 but, as the orange line is showing, it's losing its positive
momentum. The Primary still cannot turn over today, so as
mentioned previously, a test of the lows (where SPY is at this posting)
followed by a retest near the highs of the day is still likely unless
signal weight turns negative.
Jan 26th:
11:30am (will be away for the next several hours)
The
Secondary has flipped in and out of confirmation several times this
morning. The Primary continues to rise and is now -7390. Any
move back near the lows of the day can be traded from the long side
for a move back at least to the middle of the range of previous
bars.
Jan 26th:
10:30am Enter Long Confirmed @ 85.06
A
middle long signal was confirmed at 10:30 at SPY 85.06. As it is
impossible for the Primary to change slope today, any moves
back near the lows of any individual bars can be traded back toward
the highs of the preceding bars. The Plus a Buck strategy
is long at 85.06 with a GTC sell at 86.06.
Jan 26th:
Early Enter Long
An
Early Enter Long signal has been generated by the Primary. Middle
signals typically carry more risk than pure signals (see manual).
In this case, signal weight will be required to stay above
+2200 to maintain a positive slope on the Secondary confirming the
signal, hence, the signal can move in and out of confirmation easily.
This signal may confirm at 10:30am.
Jan 26th:
Opening Read
The
level of the Primary is now -10,000, up from -17,000 on the 16th.
Last week while it was rising, two short signals and no long
signals were issued. It moved up 3000 units during two days
of negative signal weight. Typically, the Primary would rise
very quickly and SPY would generate a 2-4 point move; the narrow
range a consequence of negative signal weight. To continue
to rise it will take positive signal weight to do it, otherwise
a third short signal will be issued Monday or Tuesday. Any
modest negative signal weight will turn the Primary over in a couple
of hours, strongly negative signal weight will turn it over sooner.
A break of 80.56, the double chevrons-up, followed by a short
signal would take SPY quickly to 75.
9:40am:
Opening signal weight of +729.
10am:
Signal weight has expanded to +2000. At +2200 the Secondary
will turn up and a middle long signal may be possible today. The
Primary is -9253 and will want to rise to at least zero.
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