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SECONDARY DELINEATOR

(SPY daily time scale, determines direction of trades identified by the Primary, all times Eastern)

 

Closing Read Jan 29, 2010

Primary Trend=Down

Number of days=5

1st Target=108.08 Achieved 1/28

2nd Target=107.23 Achieved 1/29

3rd Target=103.74

  

 10am

SW= -1152

SLOPE=  -290

CHANGE= -29

 

PM Update Jan 29:  The Secondary gained 29 ticks to -290.  The first two downside targets have been achieved.  The third being 103.74

 

AM Update Jan 29:  The Secondary is losing 89 ticks to -171.  It cannot turn up for at least 2 days.

 

AM Update Jan 28:  The Secondary is losing 43 ticks to -165.  To turn up, positive signal weight of +3820 is needed which is quite unlikely.

 

PM Update Jan 27:  The Secondary lost 16 ticks to -209.

 

AM Update Jan 27:  The Secondary is gaining 11 ticks to -236.

 

PM Update Jan 26:  The Secondary gained 27 ticks to -226.

 

AM Update Jan 26:  The Secondary is gaining 56 ticks to -254 and cannot turn up for the next several days.

 

PM Update Jan 25:  The Secondary lost 42 ticks to -202.  It won't be able to turn up tomorrow.

 

AM Update Jan 25:  The Secondary is losing 87 ticks to -157 this morning.  The Secondary cannot turn up for several days as signal weight of +4460 is needed to turn up today.

 

PM Update Jan 22:  Signal weight turned extemely negative during the last hour, sending the Secondary lower.  The Secondary will need several days of strongly positive signal weight now to turn back up.  I'd expect to see this cycle last about 2-4 weeks.

 

 

 


 

PRIMARY DELINEATOR

(SPY 30 minute timeframe, identifies trades, all times Eastern)

 

 

NOTICE SOFTWARE UPDATE

Click the link above to download the new server files.  The archive contains 4 files that are to be copied to your Delineator directory overwriting your existing files.  Turn off your software making sure your servers are turned off.  Then unzip and copy the files.  Restart your software and let me know if you have any problems.

 PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU'RE UPDATED

 

 

Jan 29:  Closing Read

Signal weight totally reversed mid-day and at the close was about an hour from another slope change down.  The November 2nd double chevron up at 103.74 looks like a very likely target.

 

 Primary= -4907

 SW=  -1152

SLOPE= +77

CHANGE=  -51

 

Jan 29:  2pm

I've been in touch with other users and our data provider.  The data issues are actually internet connection issues between our servers and the feed.  People are working on the issue.

 

Signal weight now weakly negative.

 

 Primary= -5288

 SW=  -71

SLOPE= +232

CHANGE=  -11

 

Jan 29:  12:58

I've been without data again for half an hour.  Anyone else see their programs freeze or act differently?

 

 

Jan 29:  11:45

Signal weight now only moderately positive at +690.  We can see all the upside possible targets as double and single chevron downs over the past 8 trading days.  To get a slope change up on the Secondary will require several days of +1800 signal weight in a row as +4680 is needed to turn it up today.   Good time to start the weekend early.

 

 Primary= -6461

 SW=  +690

SLOPE= +210

CHANGE=  +40

 

Jan 29:  10:30am  Exit Short Confirmed.

The exit short signal has confirmed at 109.67, the trading model losing .99 cents.  The trading model is now neutral as the slope on the Secondary is down.

 

 Primary= -6826

 SW=  +1680

SLOPE= +128

CHANGE=  +117

 

 

Jan 29:  10am  Early Exit Short signal issued

The early exit short signal has issued that will confirm at 10:30 if signal weight exceeds +1420.  If the signal doesn't confirm at 10:30, it will confirm at 11 since the Change is so large.  

 

 Primary= -6966

 SW=  +1424

SLOPE= +0.15

CHANGE=  +124

 

Jan 29:  Opening Read

Please be sure you've installed the new servers today.  If you haven't done so already, please install them now.

 

Also, did anyone notice that their programs stopped updating around 1:13pm EST, yesterday?  If so please let me know.

 

At the open, signal weight +1253, TTXSlope=next bar at this level of signal weight.  The Secondary still cannot turn up today so no long signal will be generated.

  

 Primary= -6975

 SW=  +1253

SLOPE= -132

CHANGE=  +136

 

 


 

Jan 28:  Opening Read

An early slope change, early exit short signal has issued.  The Secondary cannot turn up today so no long signal will be issued if the slope change up confirms.  I will be gone the balance of the day.  Please upgrade your servers after the close per the link shown above.  I have also put up a new real time chart on X in the advanced section.

  

 Primary= -4347

 SW=  +154

SLOPE= -41

CHANGE=  +41

 


 

Jan 27:  Closing Read

The Primary turned down and the trading model got short at 1:30pm at 106.68.  The Change was rather weak at the time.  Positive signal weight in the morning will turn the Primary back up again.  The Secondary cannot turn up without several days of very strongly positive signal weight.

 

 Primary= -4307

 SW=  -87

SLOPE= -82

CHANGE=  +33

 

Jan 27:  Opening Read

Signal weight moderately negative after the open at -585, the change -28 and TTXSlope=5.  I have meetings away all day today and tomorrow so I will not be around. 

 

 Primary= -3629

 SW=  -585

SLOPE= +113

CHANGE=  -28

 


 

Jan 26:  Closing Read

Signal weight could only hold very weakly positive numbers during most of the day, closing at -831, the Change -50 and TTXSlope=2.8 bars.  If signal weight opens strongly negative in the morning, we'll get a slope change down and a short signal.  I'd expect we'd make at least 1 of the targets identified on the Secondary.

 

 Primary= -3747

 SW=  -867

SLOPE= +141

CHANGE=  -51

 

 

Jan 26:  11:55

Signal weight only -35 and a slope change down seems less likely at the moment.  The unconfirmed up cycle continues.

 

 Primary= -5444

 SW=  -35

SLOPE= +199

CHANGE=  -3

 

 

Jan 26:  10:10am

Signal weight moderating to -570 and TTXSlope=7.

 

 Primary= -6059

 SW=  -570

SLOPE= +261

CHANGE=  -34

 

Jan 26:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly negative at -1381, the Change -91, TTXSlope=3.2 bars.

 

 Primary= -6318

 SW=  -1381

SLOPE= +295

CHANGE=  -90

 


 

Jan 25:  Closing Read

Not very impressive signal weight today which closed the day at +428, the Change at zero.  Tomorrow, if signal weight opens strongly negative, we'll get another slope change down and possibly a short signal as well.  With the Slope at +400, it will take at least 2 hours before any slope change can occur if signal weight opens strongly negative.

 

 Primary= -6613

 SW=  +428

SLOPE= +385

CHANGE=  +0.55

 

Jan 25:  3pm

Signal weight now moderately positive at +724 but the Change approaching single digits at +19.

 

 Primary= -6992

 SW=  +724

SLOPE= +392

CHANGE=  +19

 

Jan 25:  2:30pm

Signal weight again only modestly positive at +519, the Change now only +14.  

 

 Primary= -7396

 SW=  +519

SLOPE= +361

CHANGE=  +14

 

Jan 25:  11:30am

Signal weight weakly positive at +112, the Change +27.  It's unlikely we'll see another slope change down today as signal weight would need to turn very strongly negative to do it.  All things being equal, we'd expect price to resolve back up in the direction of the Primary.  If signal weight were +985 right now, the Change would be +90 or so and we'd have a balloon underwater.  But with signal weight so weak, we don't.

 

 Primary= -9248

 SW=  +112

SLOPE= +204

CHANGE=  +27

 

 

Jan 25:  10:30am Exit Short/Slope Change Up signal confirmed

As expected, the slope change has confirmed.  The trading model is neutral as the slope of the Secondary is down.  Signal weight has moderated to +810.

 

 Primary= -9612

 SW=  +804

SLOPE= +145

CHANGE=  +80

 

 

Jan 25:  10am  Early Exit Short/Early Slope Change Up signal issued

The slope change signal has issued and it will confirm at 10:30am unless signal weight is greater than -380.

 

 Primary= -9758

 SW=  +918

SLOPE= +65

CHANGE=  +104

 

Jan 25:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened at +1366, the Change +137 and TTXSlope=.16 or next bar.  As the Secondary cannot turn up today, no long signal will be issued.

  

 Primary= -9813

 SW=  +1366

SLOPE= -23

CHANGE=  +137

 


 

Jan 22:  Closing Read

Signal weight turned extremely negative during the final hour, closing at -2038, the Change -35.  With the Primary approaching -10,000, it's in over extended territory.  Signal weight will need to remain very strongly negative otherwise we'll get a quick moving slope change up on Monday.

  

 Primary= -9335

 SW=  -1063

SLOPE= -75

CHANGE=  +5

  

e quantus exactus

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