Closing Read Feb 26, 2010

Primary Trend=Up

Number of days=8

1st Target Level=113.13

2nd Target Level=115.08

PM Update Feb 26:  The Secondary gained 10 ticks to 92.

AM Update Feb 26:  Signal weight weakly positive at the open, the Secondary losing 2 ticks to +81.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -1280 is needed.

PM Update Feb 25:  An impressive reversal in signal weight from the opening's extreme negative levels, the Secondary losing 22 ticks to +80 and the up cycle is still intact.

AM Update Feb 25:  The Secondary has lost 126 ticks to -24 on extremely negative signal weight at the open.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -1640 is needed at the close.

PM Update Feb 24:  The Secondary gained 56 ticks to +101 the up cycle moving into its second week.

AM Update Feb 24:  The Secondary has gained 45 ticks to +91.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -680 is needed.

PM Update Feb 23:  The Secondary can turn down tomorrow with strong negative signal weight.

AM Update Feb 23:  The Secondary is losing 84 ticks to +44.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2100 is needed.

PM Update Feb 22:  The Secondary lost 30 ticks to +126.

AM Update Feb 22:  The Secondary has gained 16 ticks to +172 at the open.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2580 is needed.

Feb 26:  Closing Read

Signal weight spent most of the day only moderately positive but the Change was quite strong until mid day.  A slope change up on the Primary confirmed at 1pm (from the ignored previous short signal) and an enter long confirmed at 2:30 at SPY 110.89.  The trading model is long at that price with a gtc exit at 111.89.

By the close, the Change was only +15, signal weight closing at +527.  Monday, signal weight will need to return to strongly positive numbers or else we'll see another slope change Monday.

Feb 26:  10:10am

Signal weight now moderately negative at -741, the Change about to go negative at +2.5.  I'm taking off for the balance of the day.  I'll post an update later this afternoon.

Feb 26:  Opening Read

Signal weight weakly positive at the open, the Change +46, and unless signal weight turns more strongly positive it will be several hours before we could get a slope change up.  Negative signal weight of -1280 turns the Secondary down and triggers another middle short signal which the model will ignore.

Feb 25:  Closing Read

Signal weight reversed as soon as the Change got near zero, closing at -26, the Change +48.  With the Primary back in low negative numbers, positive signal weight tomorrow will turn it back up and issue another long signal.  It will need some energy to push through the highs at 111.51.

Feb 25:  2:44pm

Signal weight has moderated substantially, now -780, the Change +14 and the Secondary's slope is positive once again.  Notice how SPY bounced as soon as the Change got near zero at the conclusion of the 1:30 bar?  We see this over and over.

Feb 25:  12:10

Signal weight still -1778, the Change -62.  I'm off to the gym, back around 2:30.  

Feb 25:  11:30  Enter Short Confirmed

The short signal has confirmed at 109.23 but we're going to be ignoring it due to the value of the Secondary.  Signal weight still very strongly negative at -1782.  Frankly, I'm surprised to see the Secondary turning down today but it has taken exogenous events to do it.

Feb 25:  11am  Exit Long Confirmed at 109.34

The exit long signal has confirmed at 109.34, the trading model lost 1.37 points.  An early enter short signal has also issued but we will ignore that signal per my 10am comments.

Feb 25:  10:30am  Early Exit Long signal issued

The early exit has issued and it will confirm if signal weight exceeds -880 at the close of this bar.

Feb 25:  10am

Signal weight remains extremely negative at -2000, the Slope+48, Change -131 and an early exit long signal is very likely at the open of the next bar if signal weight remains this negative.  The earliest an exit long signal can be issued would be at 11am.  If signal weight remains greater than -1640, a short signal will be issued as well however the trading model will not take that signal as the value of the Slope of the Secondary is not greater than +-75.

Feb 25:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened extremely negative at -2100 due to exogenous events.  TTXSlope=1.1 bars at the current level of signal weight.  

Feb 24:  Closing Read

Signal weight returned to strongly positive levels right after my last post prior to my rain soaked round of golf.  An enter long signal was confirmed at 12:30 at SPY 110.71, the trading model long at that level with a gtc exit at 111.71.  Signal weight closed strongly positive at 1360, the Change only +21 so we'll need to see positive signal weight again tomorrow to keep this cycle moving toward the recent highs.  The Primary's only +805 so it has plenty of room on the upside.

Feb 24:  10:15am

Signal weight has moderated somewhat to +800, the Change +87 and TTXSlope=2.4 bars.  I'm leaving for the balance of the day as I have an appointment on the 1st tee.  But I fully expect the Primary to change slope back up, issue a long signal and see a continuation of the up cycle on the Secondary.

Feb 24:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1183, TTXSlope=2.5 bars at this level of signal weight.  A long signal is very possible today if the Primary changes slope.

Feb 23:  Closing Read

Signal weight moderated somewhat, but not much from the prior posting.  At the close, signal weight -1219, the Change +4 and the Primary has crossed zero and closed at -560.  We'll get a slope change up tomorrow if signal weight is positive, if negative the cycle will continue toward -5000.  It will be possible to get a middle short signal tomorrow.

Feb 23:  1:43pm

Signal weight remains strongly negative at -1358, the Change now -13 and next bar it will be less.  The Primary's now at +1242 and declining by -446 ticks per bar.  Still nothing to do but watch as we're only about half way through this cycle as measured by the Change (at zero it's half way).

Feb 23:  11am

Signal weight -1334 the value of the Primary now +3288  With the Change now at -43, a few more hours at this level of signal weight will bring it close to single digits, and with any moderation in signal weight, sooner.  We should continue to expect that the next signal will be a long signal.

Feb 23:  Opening Read

Signal weight -1347 a half hour after the open, the current down cycle continues.

Feb 22:  Closing Read

No witty Wall Street phrases to quote today to describe boredom.  The only word that comes to mind is 'oy'.

 Feb 22:  2:30pm

Signal weight weakly positive at +132 as the influence of the up cycle in the Secondary is being expressed.  

Feb 22:  11am

Boring, boring, boring.  Signal weight flat, market flat and I'm off to the gym early as I don't think there's much to do until the Primary is in a position to turn up from negative values.

Feb 22:  10am

Signal weight has moderated substantially, now -142 and it's less likely we'll see a slope change today.  We should expect the current down cycle on the Primary to complete somewhat of a normal cycle and at least cross zero if not go back to -5000.  As always, signal weight is the key.

Feb 22:  Opening Read

Signal weight +1017, TTXSlope=.97 or next bar at this level of signal weight.  It's quite possible we'll get a slope change up followed by another long signal today.  With the value of the Primary at +5869, it's up there but not overextended (yet).

Feb 19:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed modestly positive at +487, the Change +3.  Positive signal weight on Monday will turn the Primary back up and trigger another long signal.  The influence of the Secondary, which cannot turn down without several days of strongly negative signal weight, is keeping signal weight from going very strongly negative for very long.

The purpose of the Delineator Journal is to introduce you to the Delineator Analytic so you may evaluate your level of interest. You are welcome to view these pages for that purpose.  The manner in which I present information does not purport to be investment advice or an advisory service.  The Journal and the "Plus a Percent" strategy described herein are intended to introduce you to the concepts and manner of application of the software so that you may evaluate its purchase for your own use.  There are many more applications of the Delineator than are described on these pages.

The Delineator Journal and all material shown on this website is published by HCMI and may not be reproduced, disseminated, or distributed, in part or in whole, by any means, outside of the recipient's organization without express written authorization from HCMI. It is a violation of federal copyright law to reproduce all or part of this publication or its contents by any means. This material does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or investments. The opinions expressed herein are based on publicly available information and are considered reliable. However, HCMI makes NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY SORT with respect to this report. Any person using this material does so solely at their own risk and HCMI and/or its employees shall be under no liability whatsoever in any respect thereof.