Closing Read Mar 5, 2010

Primary Trend=Up

Number of days=13

1st Target Level=113.13

2nd Target Level=115.08

PM Update Mar 5:  The Secondary gained 58 ticks to +218.

AM Update Mar 5:  The Secondary is gaining 36 ticks to +197 as the up cycle continues to intensify.  The 1st target level of 113.13 was achieved on the open.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2540 is needed.

PM Update Mar 4:  The Secondary lost 9 ticks to +161.

AM Update Mar 4:  The Secondary is basically flat this morning.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2720 is needed.

PM Update Mar 3:  The Secondary lost 19 ticks to +170

AM Update Mar 3:  The Secondary is flat this morning.  To turn down, negative weight of -3080 is needed.

PM Update Mar 2:  The Secondary gained 30 ticks to +189.  Several days of strongly negative signal weight are required to turn the Secondary down.

AM Update Mar 2:  The Secondary is gaining 31 ticks to +190 on +1236 signal weight.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2560 is needed as the up cycle accelerates.

PM Update Mar 1:  The Secondary gained 66 ticks to +158.

AM Update Mar 1:  The Secondary is gaining 55 ticks to +146 as the up cycle on the Secondary goes into its second week.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -1440 is needed.  

Mar 5:  Closing Read

Signal weight remained above +2000 for the last half of the day closing at +2053, the Change +12.  The trading model is long SPY at 113.86 with a gtc exit at 114.86.  The value of the Primary is now fully extended at +9475.

Mar 5:  12:30pm

Signal weight remains extremely positive at +1991, the Change +36.  Any moderation in signal weight from here will turn the Change quickly negative.

Mar 5:  11:30 Enter Long Confirmed at SPY 113.86

The long signal has confirmed, the trading model is long at 113.86 with a gtc exit at 114.86.  I am avoiding this signal because typically when the Primary turns up on itself from an already high level, signals typically fail, and the Timing is in a sell at the moment.  However, given the extremely strong signal weight, I'd be open to a secondary trade if we get a pullback and a buy indication on the Timing, or I'd look for another symbol to trade this signal.

Mar 5:  11:25

Signal weight now +2023, the enter long will confirm.  Note the position of the SPY Timing Accumulator at the moment, it's setting up a possible sell indication right at the enter long.  

Mar 5:  11am  Slope Change Up Confirmed, Early Enter Long Signal Issued

The early enter long signal has issued that will confirm at 11:30 if signal weight exceeds +1850.  Signals generated in situations like this typically fail, but with signal weight extremely positive at +1980, we could still get another move up today, I wouldn't fight the tape.

Mar 5:  10:30 Early Slope Change Up signal issued

The early slope change signal has issued and it will confirm at 11am if signal weight exceeds +1540.  Signal weight at +1900!  From strictly a trading point of view, it's hard to want to buy such a big gap up as there's not much left on the upside for today.  One could have front run the signal today given the extreme positive level of signal weight at the open, but that all depends on your skills.  

Mar 5:  10:15am

Signal weight has expanded to +1805, the Change +72 and we'll see an early slope change up at 10:30 if signal weight remains this strongly positive.

Mar 5:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened very strongly positive at +1400, the Change +64 and TTXSlope=2 bars.  A new long signal is obviously possible however when we've seen the Primary bend back on itself from a high level, long signals typically fail.  We'll just wait and see what it looks like at the time of the signal, and if the opening gap level is filled.

Mar 4:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed modestly positive at +498, the Change +16.  If signal weight opens strongly positive, we could see a slope change back up tomorrow.

Mar 4:  11:30am

Signal weight now about to go negative as the down cycle on the Primary begins to take hold.  I'm gone for the balance of the day as there's nothing really to watch here today.  It will most likely be next week (mon or tues) before we can expect to see a slope change up.

Mar 4:  10:20am

Signal weight now +298, the Change -30, price resolving in the direction of the Primary.

Mar 4:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened moderately positive at +800, the Change -0.14.  It may be possible for the Primary to turn up again today if signal weight turns very strongly positive, but that's about all it may do on the upside.  As the value of the Primary is essentially at a positive extreme, it really can't rise much further from this level; certainly the Change value will be very low if it does.  I'd expect to see this down cycle play out for the next several days.

Mar 3:  Closing Read

An exit long/slope change down signal confirmed at 3:30pm at 112.28.  Signal weight remained positive all day, closing at +268.  The value of the Primary is +9508, at the top of its range.

Mar 3:  10:12am

Signal weight holding around +800, the Change -32.  The 1st tee beckons....

Mar 3:  Opening Read

Signal weight modestly positive at +705, the Change -39, TTXSlope=5 bars.  Any moves in price above these levels are unsustainable in this cycle.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change more strongly negative and accelerate the slope change down.  To continue to rise, signal weight will need to exceed +1800  or more and even then we should be taking profits into those highs.

Mar 2:  Closing Read

Signal weight stayed strongly positive all day, the Change negative all day.  With the value of the Primary now at +8000, any moderation in signal weight will turn the Primary down within a few hours.  As the Secondary is firmly up, we can expect to see another neutral down cycle.  The next signal most probable signal will be a long signal most likely not until next week.

Mar 2:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1226, the Change -26.  Signal weight will need to remain strongly positive or else the Change will increase and a slope change down will be the next signal.  The trading model is flat having achieved its target yesterday.

Mar 1:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed +1732, the Change +0.50.  We know the drill...tomorrow, any moderation in signal weight will begin the process of the next slope change.  With the trading model flat, the next few days will be pretty dull signal wise.

Mar 1:  12:21pm

Both profit targets for SPY and X (see Advanced) have been achieved today.  I'm off to the gym, back around 2:30.

Mar 1:  11:10am   Trading Model Profit Target Achieved at 111.89

The model just achieved its target.

Mar 1:  10:30am

Signal weight expanded further during the 10am bar reaching +1800, SPY 111.80 within 9 cents of the target.  At this posting, signal weight still very strongly positive at +1503, the Change +42.

Mar 1:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1497, the Change +60.  The trading model is long SPY from Friday's signal at 110.89 with a gtc exit at 111.89. 

Feb 26:  Closing Read

Signal weight spent most of the day only moderately positive but the Change was quite strong until mid day.  A slope change up on the Primary confirmed at 1pm (from the ignored previous short signal) and an enter long confirmed at 2:30 at SPY 110.89.  The trading model is long at that price with a gtc exit at 111.89.

By the close, the Change was only +15, signal weight closing at +527.  Monday, signal weight will need to return to strongly positive numbers or else we'll see another slope change Monday.

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