|
Apr
9: Closing Read
Today's
opening gap above the 83.23 level was a bonus to the trading model
which exited at 84.60 versus the 83.23 target price. It doesn't
happen this way often and sometimes happens the opposite way. Trader's
luck.
Extremely
strong signal weight persisted all day ending at +2822, price making
new highs virtually each bar all day. The great value of the
Delineator system is the repetitive nature of the cycle, and the
measurement and analysis of the motion of the Primary. It's
the same every time. Depending on your own skills and methodologies,
how you apply this knowledge is up to you. The Plus a Buck
strategy is designed as a simple to learn and understand application
of the process. The fact that it has made 14 to 15 successful
trades for the year shows how a simple strategy can sometimes be
the best, especially since most trades last only a few hours. It
depends on how much you think is enough.
Next
week we can expect the Primary to change slope late Monday to early
Tuesday, with a down cycle to last another few days after. Depending
on the level of signal weight, the Secondary should remain positive
allowing for another long signal next week. However, the negative
divergence which is now more apparent in the Secondary may bring
a short signal sooner rather than later. We shall wait to
see.
For
those who have been following these pages, you may want to consider
a trial of the software to watch the system in real time. For
new readers, sign up for the automated email signals so you can
learn how all this works. Use the links above.
Apr
9: 3pm
Extremely
strong signal weight continues at +2808, the Change -2.7 with
price making new highs on the day. The value of the Primary
is now +5261 and is rising by 830 ticks per bar and approaching
its upper limits now that the Change is negative. We can expect
a slope change down completing this cycle sometime during the day
Monday or Tuesday.
Since
the trading model completed its transaction, we can turn our attentions
to the activities in Augusta.
Apr
9: 2:15
The
Change is now slightly negative.
Apr
9: 1pm
Extremely
strong signal weight continues as the Change is now in single digits.
Why is this important? Because when the Change is strong,
we know that any counter trend price movement will quickly and easily
resolve back in the direction of the Primary. When the Change
passes zero, especially with extremely strong signal weight, we
know that a reversal in price against the trend is much more
likely than at the beginning of a cycle when the sustainability
of the cycle is highest.
Apr
9: 12:00pm SERVERS ARE ALL BACK UP....NETWORK
PROBLEMS SOLVED
Extremely
strong signal weight continues from the gap opening. The trading
model is neutral having made much more than was targeted due to
the strong gap opening. With signal weight of +2601, the Change
is only +18 so we would expect the Change to diminish to zero very
shortly, especially with any moderation of signal weight. The
Primary is +292 and we would expect it to continue higher over the
next trading day before changing slope again late Monday or Tuesday
of next week. The strong signal weight will add to the strength
of the Secondary which was in a position to turn over negative earlier
in the week.
Apr
9: 11:00am
Data
vendor still having problems. Strong signal weight continues.
Apr
9: 10:30am
Apr
9: 10:00am NOTE: Some users
are able to log in, some are not. The issue seems to be a
server router network issue which they're still working on. Our
development program is being used for these images.
Very
strong signal weight of +2200, the Change +67. The trading
model achieved more than its target this morning exiting per the
pre-opening comments at 84.60. Since January, 15 or 16 signals
have been successful.
Apr
9: Pre-Opening Comment
SPY
is trading pre-market at 84.35 well above the GTC limit. For
the model, the GTC will be CANCELLED and the position sold shortly
after the opening. FOR USERS: Make your own decision
as to when to take your profit.
USERS:
THE DATA VENDOR IS HAVING PROBLEMS THIS MORNING. THE
PROGRAM CANNOT LOG INTO THE SERVERS. WE'RE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.
9:31AM
UPDATE: THE MODEL JUST LIQUIDATED THE POSITION
AT 84.60.
9:42am
UPDATE: WE STILL HAVE ISSUES WITH THE DATA VENDOR. USERS SHOULD
ALLOW THEIR PROGRAMS TO CONTINUE TO TRY TO LOG INTO THE SERVERS.
Apr
8: Closing Read
The
Primary began an up cycle this morning issuing a Long Signal at
12:30 at SPY 82.43. Very strong signal weight was present
for most of the day. The trading model is long at 82.43 with
a GTC exit at 83.43. Mid-day, a pullback in price testing
the lows of the day occurred. While very strong signal weight
was maintained, the Change number became quite low and hence did
not create a balloon under water scenario at the time. While
price certainly was expected to resolve back in the direction of
the Primary, the essential ingredient for a secondary trade, a strong
Change number, was not present.
Users
and readers to these pages should always guard against letting price
changes affect their behavior or outlook. Price changes against
the direction of the Primary are not indicators of a failed signal,
especially so early into a new cycle. Only signal weight and
time can change the direction of the Primary.
Apr
8: 3pm
Signal
weight continues strong at +1219 but well off its higher levels
earlier in the day. The Change however is weak at +13. It
is somewhat unusual to see the Change this low so early in a new
up cycle. The trading model is long at 82.43 with a GTC exit
at 83.23.
Apr
8: 2:15pm
Signal
weight remains very strongly positive at +1594, the Change +45.
The up cycle should last at least 2 days and price should
resolve back to the direction of the Primary.
Apr
8: 1pm
The
trading model is long SPY at 82.43 with a GTC exit at 83.23. Signal
weight has increased to +1945, the Change +90.
Apr
8: 12:30pm ENTER LONG SIGNAL CONFIRMED AT
SPY 82.43
The
enter long signal has been confirmed at 12:30 at 82.43. For
the 'Plus a Buck' strategy, 80 cents is still being used due to
the current value of SPY. A GTC SELL at 83.23 is also entered.
For the next two bars, any move in price back near 82
will be an opportunity for a secondary transaction back to the highs
of the day as long as the Change is greater than +50 and signal
weight is greater than +700.
Apr
8: 12:00pm SLOPE CHANGE CONFIRMED, EARLY ENTER
LONG SIGNAL ISSUED
The
slope change up has confirmed as expected, and an early enter long
signal has been issued that will confirm at 12:30pm if signal weight
is greater than -340. In a bar or two it will be impossible for
the Primary to change slope back down today. Any move in price
down toward the middle of the range today while signal weight remains
greater than +700 will be an opportunity to create a secondary position--the
"Balloon Under Water" scenario.
Notice
how the Slope is +173? The STATS window tells us that the
Enter Long signal in 1/2 hour will confirm even if signal weight
is -340! Hence, we are virtually assured that the enter signal
will be issued at the end of this bar. Any move lower during
this bar is a gift as long as signal weight remains in its current
trend.
Apr
8: 11:30am EARLY SLOPE CHANGE SIGNAL
ISSUED
An
early slope change signal has been issued that will confirm at 12:00
if signal weight is greater than +165. When the Slope reaches
+80, an early enter long signal will also be issued. This
may happen during this bar if signal weight is greater than +1780.
These numbers are generated by the STATS window which is part
of the software.
If
signal weight remains greater than +1000, there will be a dual signal
at noon which will confirm the slope change and issue an early enter
long signal. Understanding the sequence of signals and the
required signal weight and Slope values are critical in working
with the software.
Apr
8: 11:00am
Signal
weight has improved again at +1016, the Slope -71 and the Change
+115. An early slope change will be triggered at 11:30.
Apr
8: 10:30am
Signal
weight has declined to +473, the Change is now +104 and an early
slope change is still expected now in 1 hour given the current level
of signal weight.
Apr
8: 10:00am
An
early slope change is now expected in 1.6 bars (Slope/Change=# of
bars). For new readers, the sequence of signals is as follows:
early slope change, slope change confirmation, early enter long,
enter long confirmation. These are described more fully in
the Manual section. Confirmation can only come at the end
of a bar.
Apr
8: Opening Read
Positive
signal weight of +1045 has the Change +176, the Slope -445. Assuming
signal weight maintains, a slope change up and a long signal is
expected between 11-12 today.
Apr
7: Closing Read
The
slope on the Secondary may turn down tomorrow morning if signal
weight is once again strongly negative. This will generate
a "middle" short signal. A pure signal is one when
at the time of a slope change, the new direction of the Primary
is already confirmed by the direction of the Secondary. A
middle signal occurs when the slope of the Secondary changes in
the direction of the Primary AFTER the Primary's slope change. Middle
signals have more risk than pure signals because they occur well
after a slope change and well into the Primary's cycle. On
average, middle signals only work half the time.
If
signal weight is positive tomorrow, the Primary will most likely
change slope up early in the day and generate a new long signal.
Apr
7: 3pm
The
numbers:
Apr
7: 2pm
Signal
weight turned more negative at -2159 but the Change is still a positive
number at +8.64. This tells us that more and more negative
signal weight will be needed to keep the Primary from turning up.
The value of the Primary is now -4638 and we'd expect it to
reach -8000 late today or tomorrow.
Apr
7: 1pm
How
boring is this? Quite. Signal weight remains very strongly
negative and we can see the orange line (Change) still rising indicating
a positive Change. So we wait.
Apr
7: 12:00pm
The
numbers are shown below, still a waiting game for the slope change.
At the current level of Change, it will take 35 bars (Slope/Change=#
of bars) for a slope change. Obviously signal weight needs
to turn positive before we can get interested.
Apr
7: 11:00am
Signal
weight has turned less negative at -1695, the Change +25 and the
value of the Primary is now -507.
Apr
7: 10:00am
Signal
weight remains very strongly negative at -2046, the Change is +5.
Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change to a
much stronger positive number pulling the Primary back up. New
readers to these pages should understand that the Delineator does
not attempt to identify and trade every move in price. Price
is irrelevant because our goal is to focus on trading at points
in time immediately following a slope change in the Primary when
its direction is confirmed by the Secondary. So, understanding
how the Primary moves and when it can change slope is the goal
of these pages. Running the software on your own computer
is the best way to learn how to use it effectively.
Apr
7: Opening Read
Very
strong negative signal weight at the opening of -2035 has the Change
still a positive number at +1.6. The price has moved down
into the gap area mentioned in a previous post yesterday which is
adding to the negative signal weight. A slope change may be
possible today, but we will need to see signal weight improve to
do it. The Secondary cannot turn over today but it may tomorrow.
If it does, it will generate a middle short (high risk) signal.
The trading model is neutral awaiting the next signal.
Apr
6: Closing Read
While
strongly negative signal weight persisted all day, the Change reached
its turning point late in the day today. By reaching zero
while signal weight remained strongly negative, the Change tells
us that the Primary is starting its slope change process. Unless
signal weight opens tomorrow again strongly negative, the Change
will turn strongly positive pulling the Primary toward a slope change
later in the day tomorrow and a new long signal.
Apr
6: 3:30pm
Change
is now positive 4.74 with signal weight at -1952. The process
of a slope change has begun. The Slope will have to get to
zero and only positive signal weight can move it there.
Apr
6: 3pm
Notice
how the Change is -6 while the signal weight is -2087. This
tells us that virtually all the energy in the downward path of the
Primary is now almost gone. Any moderation in negative signal
weight will turn the Change strongly positive. A slope change
up tomorrow is expected.
Apr
6: 2pm
The
Change is now in low numbers at -16 while signal weight is still
extremely negative at -2064. Within a few bars the Change
will be a positive number. Any moderation in signal weight
will turn the Change more strongly up leading to a slope change
back up and a long signal tomorrow.
Apr
6: 1pm
Even
with extremely negative signal weight, the Change is now only -38.
As soon as the Change reaches zero, the Primary will begin
the slope change process.
Apr
6: 12:00pm
Signal
weight now -2200, the Change -64. Price is testing support
at the double chevrons up from Friday.
Apr
6: 11:00am
Signal
weight has turned more negative at -1960, the Change is -84. The
double chevron up from Friday is 82.69. A break of that level
should trigger stronger negative signal weight.
Apr
6: 10:00am
There
is sufficient signal weight built up from the last several days
to hold the slope of the Secondary positive. This should allow
the Primary to go through a 'normal' down cycle that should last
another 1.5-2 days. A typical range in the value of the Primary
is -8000 to +8000, the last range was -10k to +11k. As long
as the Secondary doesn't change slope, the next anticipated signal
will be a long signal late Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
Apr
6: Opening Read
Strongly
negative signal weight of -1428 has SPY resolving back in the direction
of the Primary. The trading model is neutral (gray color)
because the direction of the Primary is not confirmed by the Secondary.
SPY should try to close the gap at 81.41 during this down
cycle.
Apr
3: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained positive after 12pm and at the close was +1175,
the Change +22. There was never an opportunity today to trade
the Lead Balloon scenario. They do not happen very often but
it's always worthwhile to watch to see if one develops. It's
the only scenario that would prompt me to trade against the direction
of the Secondary. The trading model remains neutral awaiting
the next long signal.
|
