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May
1: Closing Read
During
the last hour, signal weight turned back to being moderately positive,
the Change basically zero. If you look at the last 3 slope
changes down on your software, especially Apr 13, today's doesn't
look much different. With positive signal weight, the Change
is zero. We can expect the current downcycle to last
2-3 days with a slope change back up late Tuesday or Wednesday.
If
the Primary should turn up on Monday, it would be one of those times
when the Primary bends up on itself from an already extended position.
Further price gains are made but are not sustained, and this
sets up much larger declines. This type of behavior often
occurs at the conclusion of a cycle on the Secondary. You
can see an example of this on the Secondary from the final high
in January. There was negative divergence from late November
to December, then a breakout and failure. (Keep this in the
back of your mind for awhile.)
For
the week, a full Primary set of cycles--slope change down on the
27th, a slope change up and a successful long signal on the
29th, and another slope change down today. Each time, the
same process repeats itself because the Primary changes slope
in the same way every time. The model then sets up our long
and short trades in a repeatable way and enforces a profit taking
discipline.
May
1: 3pm
Very
little change from the previous post.
May
1: 2pm
Signal
weight has turned strongly positive at +1166, the Change +16 during
the last two bars. At the current level of signal weight,
an early slope change up could be projected in 4 bars (Slope/Change=#
of bars). SPY during the last bar rose to 88.20 but no Lead
Balloon yet today as we needed negative signal weight and a counter
trend move to trigger it. We got the counter trend move but
not the negative signal weight or strongly negative Change. But
the potential for a good Balloon setup seemed worth the effort today.
You never know if they will present themselves after a slope
change or not and this is a good exercise for new users to follow
along in the process. The day isn't over just yet and our
expectations should still be that price will resolve back in the
direction of the Primary.
May
1: 1pm
Signal
weight is now +831 and the Change number is positive +2. While
it nearly impossible for the Primary to turn up today (needing +3100
SW), with the Change number now positive, we could project a
small up move to 88.40 before price resolves back in the direction
of the Primary. Using the motion of the Primary to predict
price behavior is what it's all about. Don't react to price,
react to signal weight and it's affect on the Change and Slope numbers.
Focus on the behavior of the Primary and then view price behavior
within that context.
Some
cycles start fast, some start slowly. Intuitively, we know
that if the Secondary is up, all things being equal, there will
be more bullish than bearish surprises. Wouldn't it also follow
that when compared, down cycles would under perform up cycles? Of
course, and this is why the trading model only trades in the direction
of the Secondary. We need to have a break in signal weight
to the downside to get this cycle moving.
May
1: 12:00pm
Signal
weight continues weakly positive at +514, the Change -15 and the
Slope -127. To turn back up today signal weight will need
to be +3060, near it's positive extreme. Any attempts by price
to rally will resolve back to the direction of the Primary. As
soon as signal weight turns more negative, price will accelerate
lower.
May
1: 11:30am
Signal
weight at +729, the Change -7. No changes from the prior posting.
The trading model is neutral because the Secondary is still
up and not confirming the direction of the Primary (gray color).
We can expect price to make a series of lower highs and lower
lows until the next slope change. Possible downside targets
are identified in last night's closing read. To turn the Primary
up this bar would take +2840 signal weight.
May
1: 11:17am
Signal
weight has turned modestly positive at +756, the Change -7. Per
the post below, we really need the Change number to be in double
digit negative numbers for the Lead Balloon scenario to be fully
realized. It would still be very difficult to the Primary
to turn back up today. Allow SPY room on the upside to lay
out shorts if you're doing that.
May
1: 11:00am
Signal
weight is now weakly positive at +268, the Change -32 and the Slope
-122. For the Primary to turn back up, positive signal weight
of +2720 is needed. Any move by price back to just under 88
while signal weight remains weakly positive or negative would be
an opportunity for experienced traders to start laying out shorts.
HOWEVER, new users are encouraged NOT to do this and instead
stick to the trading model which is neutral (no positions).
May
1: 10:30am EXIT LONG / SLOPE
CHANGE DOWN CONFIRMED AT SPY 86.91
It
was very obvious to users that the signal was going to confirm.
Signal weight never reached very much above zero during the
last bar. We can see by looking at the Slope and Change numbers
that the Primary wants to drop. With signal weight at -236
and the Change -63, if signal weight dropped to -1000, the Change
number will be +150+ or more providing a very strong push to the
downside on the Primary. The first double chevron up is 86.85.
Once price falls below that, we can expect signal weight to become
more strongly negative. As soon as the needed signal weight
to turn the Primary back up exceeds +2000, we will have a Lead Balloon
scenario, but we'll also need strongly negative signal weight as
well.
May
1: 10:00am
Signal
weight only reached -300+- during the last bar and closed at +225
so the slope change did not confirm as it needed to be -160 to confirm.
However, now notice that the Slope is -30, the Change -50.
The signal will now confirm at 10:30am if signal weight is
less than +860! Signal weight will have to rally to prevent
a slope change down.
May
1: Opening Read EARLY EXIT LONG /
EARLY SLOPE CHANGE DOWN SIGNAL ISSUED
At
the opening, an Early exit long / early slope change down signal
has been issued. To confirm at 10am, negative signal weight
of -160 is needed. With signal weight at -121, the Slope -1.7,
and the Change is -76, a big number. So if we don't get a
slope change this bar we will shortly unless signal weight turns
very strongly positive...which will only delay the slope change
as described in last night's closing post.
Apr
30: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed weakly positive at +515, the Change -51 and the Slope
only +78. Looking at the STATS window, we see -1060 signal
weight needed to XSlope. That can easily occur within the
first half hour on Friday. Strong positive signal weight will
simply extend the boredom as no additional price gains could be
sustainable. This would set up a Lead Balloon scenario--the
opposite of a balloon underwater. We haven't seen one of these
for quite some time. (one of these days one of these will
show up when I'm not playing golf)
Following
the slope change we can then expect a 2-3 day down cycle where the
value of the Primary should fall to -8000+-. Identifying the
levels of the next down cycle (assuming a slope change down tomorrow)
look to the chevron up's. Use your horizontal crosshairs
to find the first double chevron up from today's close-- 86.91
from yesterday. The next double chevron up is on the 28th
at 85.60. Notice how this also aligns the single chevron's
on the 27th? So those are the 1st and 2nd targets in price
for the next down cycle on the Primary: 86.91 and 85.60. To
find upside targets, use the same technique finding down double
chevrons.
Many
new users should, however, watch as this next down cycle plays out
and stick to the discipline. Since the Secondary is
still up, a short signal cannot be issued. Watching and projecting the
most likely price behaviors based upon our knowledge of the motion
of the Primary is how one uses a leading indicator. Once that
becomes second nature, the opportunities present themselves.
Apr
30: 3pm
Signal
weight is now below +1000, the Change -37. It's very unlikely
we'll see a slope change today, but most likely in the morning depending
on signal weight. The trading model is neutral so from that
perspective today is really a non-issue as we're flat with no positions.
Apr
30: 2:30pm
Signal
weight is now +1133, the Change -32 and the value of the Primary
+11,603. Given the current level of signal weight, we can
project an early slope change /early exit long signal in 5.8bars
(Slope/Change=# of bars). If signal weight drops below +1000
or goes negative, the signal will come in sooner.
Apr
30: 12:30pm
Signal
weight continues to decline and is now +1450, the Change -44. The
value of the Primary is +10,625 and only increasing signal weight
can extend this cycle, otherwise we can expect to see a slope change
down either late today or by mid day tomorrow. Notice that
the color of the Primary has returned to light green indicating
signal weight is below +1500.
I'm
off to the gym, next post at 1:30pm.
Apr
30: 12:00pm
Signal
weight has declined somewhat to +1640, the Change increasing to
-38. The value of the Primary is now +10,235 and in that region
where further price rises will be unsustainable. Users of
the software should carefully monitor the Change number. As
soon as it gets to -60, we can start predicting a slope change down.
Apr
30: 11:00am
No
big changes from the prior post. The Primary continues to
rise, price making new highs on the day, signal weight continues
extremely strong, the Primary now at +9293. Any
moderation in signal weight from here will turn the Change more
strongly negative. In another bar or two, the Primary will
be at +10,000 and in that area where further price rises will be
unsustainable for the current cycle.
Apr
30: 10:00am
Signal
weight remains very strongly positive at +1780, the Change -36.
The Slope is now +561 which means that the value of the Primary
is rising by +561 ticks each bar. Given no great change in
signal weight, the Primary should be at +10,000 in a couple of hours.
The darker green color of the Primary means that signal weight
is in excess of +1500 and is simply a visual aid.
Apr
30: Opening Read
Strong
positive signal weight at the opening of +1339 has the Change at
a negative -60. Greater and greater positive signal weight
will be needed to keep the Primary rising, else it will begin to
fall. The value of the Primary at +7626 is not yet extended,
hence even with the negative Change, it is still way to early to
project a slope change just yet. However, if the Primary
gets up to the +10000 level on strong weight, any rises in price
at that time will be unsustainable for the current cycle on the
Primary. The trading model is neutral having achieved its
profit target yesterday.
Apr
29: Closing Read TRADING MODEL ACHIEVED
PROFIT TARGET
Extremely
strong signal weight characterized today. The trading model
achieved its profit target at 88.04 during the 3pm bar. Signal
weight closed at +2515, the Change +1.64. The value of the
Primary is now back to the previous high of +7051 and is rising
by 636 ticks each bar.
With
the Change number essentially zero, any moderation in signal
weight will cause the Change to turn to a strongly negative number
and the process of another slope change will begin anew. Looking
back at today's activity, there weren't any pullbacks in price described
in the 10:30am post that would have created a secondary trading
opportunity. This is why if a user is going to follow the
Plus a Buck strategy (plus a percent), it is essential to make the
initial transaction at the time of confirmation of the enter signal
rather than wait for a pullback to enter then. We can now
expect a slope change late Friday or mid-day on Monday.
Apr
29: 10:30am ENTER LONG SIGNAL CONFIRMED
AT SPY 87.24
The
enter long signal has confirmed. The trading model is long
SPY at 87.24 with a GTC sell limit at 88.04. Over the next
two hours, as long as signal weight remains at least strongly positive
(>+1000) any move back in price will be an opportunity to trade
back to the highs of the day. Such secondary trades must have
a reasonable range in them to be successful ie: a pull back
of .80 to 1.10+- on SPY would generate a reasonable range back to
the highs of the day (a move back to 86.60 for example)
This
is my last post until well after the close as I must leave for the
day (sorry). Users have their software new readers to this
journal should consider getting a software trial set up on their
computers. Email me for
details.
Apr
29: 10:23am
Signal
weight is +2184, the enter long signal will confirm in 7 minutes
at 10:30am.
Apr
29: 10:00am SLOPE CHANGE UP CONFIRMED, EARLY ENTER
LONG SIGNAL ISSUED
Extremely
strong positive signal weight of +2012 has the Change +86 and the
Slope is now +141. The slope change up has confirmed as expected
and an early enter long signal has also been issued that will confirm
at 10:30am if signal weight is greater than +785.
Users
should be prepared to enter their trades for the Plus a Buck model
at approximately 5 minutes prior to the end of the current bar.
Assuming signal weight remains strongly positive and users
can predict that the signal will absolutely confirm, making the
trade as close to the 10:30 actual bar is important as that is where
the model executes. You will see the price of the signal on
the Trade Window on the program. The model is still using
+80 cents due to the current level of SPY.
I
have appointments again today so my last post until after the close
will be at 10:30+- following the signal.
Apr
29: Opening Read EARLY SLOPE CHANGE UP SIGNAL
ISSUED
Signal
weight of +1174 has generated an early slope change up that will
confirm at 10:00am if signal weight is +880 or more. If
it confirms, an early enter long signal would be the next possible
signal.
Update
9:50am: Signal weight is +1851, the Change +92, the Slope
+48. Change + Slope = approx. next bar's slope=140+- above
+80 needed for an early enter signal. So we can clearly see
that the early slope change will confirm in at 10am, and an early
enter long signal should be issued also at 10am that may confirm
at 10:30.
Apr
28: Closing Read
Today
I posted entries all day long. I encourage new readers to
the site to review the entire day's posts by scrolling down to the
beginning of today and read up. Pay special attention to the
values of Signal weight, Slope and especially the Change. While
nothing of any significance happened today, it is a good study of
how to predict the motion of the Primary and what signal weight
is needed to affect a slope change. Understanding these concepts
is key to learning how to use my software.
Projecting
what might happen to the Primary tomorrow, it's an easy answer.
If signal weight opens strongly positive, we'll see a slope
change followed by a long signal. If signal weight opens strongly
negative, we'll see a continuation of the current down cycle, the
Secondary could turn over and the middle short signal described
earlier today would be triggered. Notice that at the close,
with signal weight essentially zero, the Change is also nearly zero.
Very much like the motion of the Primary on the 23rd. Whichever
way the winds blow the tree bends.
Apr
28: 3:30-3:45pm
Users
watching their software over the past half hour have no doubt watched
in complete boredom as signal weight slowly leaked low enough
to avoid triggering an early slope change. It will now take
weight of +840 to turn the Primary up this bar but since no signal
can be issued at the close, the day is over from the perspective
of the Delineator.
Also
notice that price could not sustain a move above 86.27 as predicted
in the 2pm post as signal weight could only get to around +750,
then quickly declined. Why did I pick 86.27? Right click
on the mouse opening up the cross hairs and connect the double chevron
down from the 4/22 and the single chevron down from yesterday's
(the most recent) close. You might want to turn off the orange
line (chart options/uncheck Delin Fast Indicator) to line the highs
of those bars. You'll see 86.27-86.40 as the level of SPY
that would have the first initial resistance. Since signal
weight didn't reach the +1000 level, we knew that price would resolve
back in the direction of the Primary.
If
you further use the same technique to identify the potential range
back to the downside and determine whether it was sufficient to
trade. Personally, unless I can obtain 1% from a range, I
won't bother. And I also won't trade unless the Change number
is big. So, whether there was 1% in it or not today, I wouldn't
be trading because the Change number was low and because it was
positive. (And besides,
I've been posting all day long.)
Apr
28: 3pm
Notice
the Slope and Change numbers? If signal weight is greater
than +1180 this bar, an early slope change will be issued. Otherwise,
given no change in signal weight, an early slope change up will
be issued next bar at 3:30pm. A signal cannot confirm at the
end of the day, so if we get an early slope change during the 3:30
bar, it cannot confirm until tomorrow 15 minutes AFTER the opening.
Apr
28: 2:30pm
Signal
weight has bumped up to +776, the Slope -56, the Change is now +47.
We can now expect an early slope change up during the 3-3:30
bar (Slope/Change=# of bars = 1.1
Apr
28: 2pm
Signal
weight remains weakly positive at +374, the Change +33 and the Slope
-117. A sustainable break above 86.27 would only come if signal
weight increased to +1000, and a break below the lows of the day
would also need strong negative signal weight. So, we're locked
in a narrow range for the day unless signal weight turns strongly
in either direction.
Apr
28: 1pm
Signal
weight has turned a bit more positive but is still quite weak at
+446, the Change +44. At the current level of signal weight,
an early slope change up may be issued in 4 bars (Slope/Change=#
of bars = 3.8). Each bar is of course 30 minutes, so about
2 hours from this post.
Apr
28: 12:00pm
No
real change from the previous post. Signal weight remains
weakly positive at +170, the Change +43.
Apr
28: 11:30am
A
common pitfall for all of us is that we want to trade too often.
We see a big price swing and wonder after the fact whether
we could have traded that swing or not. But the fact remains
that we cannot expect to trade every swing or even most of
the swings we see during an average cycle on the Primary. It's
a mental trap that we need to be wary of.
This
is what the Plus a Buck strategy represents. We know we can
initiate a transaction with confidence when the enter signal is
generated if it is a pure signal (not middle). And we also
know we can confidently trade a counter trend move in price back
in the direction of the Primary if signal weight and the Change
number are strongly in our favor. The best time to do this
is during the first several hours following a slope change. As
the cycle matures, the risks increase. Limiting your trading
to periods immediately following a slope change, and taking the
rest of the time off, will increase your productivity and lower
the risk of making mistakes.
Signal
weight remains weakly positive at +87, the Change +48 and the value
of the Primary is now +2301. We wait.
Apr
28: 11:00am
Signal
weight remains weakly positive at +249, the Change +58. If
signal weight continues positive, and builds to stronger positive
numbers, the timing of the slope change up will be moved forward
(earlier) and we may yet see a long signal today...but of course
we will wait to see if this develops.
Apr
28: 10:30am
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +123, the Change +57. The
process of a slope change has now begun and we can estimate that,
given the current signal weight, an early slope change up will occur
in 7.1 bars (Slope/Change=# of bars).
Apr
28: 10:15am
Signal
weight has moderated substantially and is now only weakly negative
at -483, the Change +33.
Apr
28: 10:00am EARLY ENTER SHORT SIGNAL HAS
NOT CONFIRMED
Signal
weight has moderated and the early enter (middle) short signal has
not confirmed. The early enter will remain in effect
until the next slope change on the Primary. So if signal weight
today closes any bar at -1380 or more, the middle short signal will
confirm at that time.
Notice
that with signal weight at -1008, the Change is +5.6, hence half
of the down cycle of the Primary is now completed. Any
moderation in signal weight from here will begin the process of
the next slope change up on the Primary. This is why the best
time to trade is during the period immediately following a slope
change when the Change number is very large.
Apr
28: 9:53am
Signal
weight is -1208 and the signal is back out of confirmation.
Apr
28: 9:50am
Users
should watch their signal weight number on their programs carefully
over the next few minutes to determine if the signal will confirm
IF they're planning on taking the middle signal. The trading
model will take the signal regardless because it's the model. As
of this post signal weight is -1403.
Apr
28: 9:43am
Signal
weight has already moved back to -1323 from -1385 and the Secondary
is no longer down. This is the big problem with middle signals
as signal weight can easily move back out of the area where a signal
can be confirmed. As of this post, the signal will not confirm.
Apr
28: Opening Read EARLY ENTER SHORT SIGNAL
ISSUED
Signal
weight has opened strongly negative and an early enter short signal
has been issued. Negative signal weight of -1380 is needed
to turn the Secondary down, bringing it into confirmation with the
Primary. This is a middle signal (described in yesterday's
Closing Read). Along with the normal risks, additional risks
are associated with middle signals the biggest being that the Secondary
can come out of compliance with the Primary if signal weight moderates
and falls below the level needed to turn the Secondary down. The
early enter short signal will confirm at 10am IF signal weight is
greater than -1380.
Apr
27: Closing Read
The
Primary changed slope today and began its down cycle which should
be completed either late Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. If
signal weight opens the day tomorrow strongly negative, a middle
short signal will be issued on the Primary. A middle signal
occurs when the Secondary comes into confirmation of the Primary
AFTER the Primary has already changed slope. Middle signals
are only 50/50 reliable because the Primary is already well into
its cycle by the time such a signal is generated. The last
4 middle signals have achieved their profit targets and were successful,
but this is not the long term result.
Signal
weight closed at -1527, the Change -27. The Slope is quite
large at -535 so the Primary will continue lower tomorrow reaching
near zero within 4 hours if signal weight is modestly to strongly
negative. The gray dots indicate that the trading model is
neutral (no positions).
Apr
27: 3pm
Signal
weight remains strongly negative at -1520, the Change is now -38,
the Slope -492. We can predict the value of the Primary for
the next bar by adding the Slope to the Primary. 4900-492=4408.
We can see that the Primary is losing almost 500 ticks per
bar.
Normal
cycles on the Primary last 2-4 days. Since we really don't
care about price, focusing on the value and level of the Primary
is important as we want to always know 1) when a slope change can
occur, 2) how much signal weight is needed to generate a signal,
3) where the Primary is within its cycle. Focusing on these
points and waiting for the trading model will allow more time away
from the market and make the time you spend in front of your screen
more productive. Over the past several months (and years)
the typical trading model trade lasts only a few hours, then you
have days off until the next signal.
Apr
27: 2pm
Signal
weight remains strongly negative at -1615, the Change -59.
Per the previous post, price has tested the lows of the day
identified by the single chevron up at 85.61. The chevrons
identify levels where we can expect price to move and are useful
in setting specific targets. The next chevron up is from the
22nd at 85.08.
Apr
27: 1:30pm
Signal
weight has remained modestly negative until the 1pm bar when it
turned more strongly negative at -1400. As mentioned in the
previous post, once the Primary cannot turn back up following a
slope change down, any attempt to rally will fail and price will
resolve back in the direction of the Primary. This is an essential
feature of the Delineator that is very dependable. The trading
model is still neutral (flat) because the direction of the Primary
is not confirmed by the Secondary. We can expect to see price
test the opening lows of the day and continue to make lower lows
and lower highs in its range until the Change number gets close
to zero.
Apr
27: 11:45am
To
turn the Primary back up this bar, signal weight of +1640 will be
needed. In another half hour, it will be impossible for the Primary
to turn back up today. Any attempt to take out the highs will
fail if signal weight remains strongly negative as price will resolve
back in the direction of the Primary.
I
have a meeting and will be away for 1.5 hours. The next post
will be around 1:30pm
Apr
27: 11:30am EXIT LONG / SLOPE CHANG DOWN SIGNAL CONFIRMED
The
Exit Long / Slope change down signal has confirmed. Users
of the program knew well before the close of the last bar that the
signal was going to confirm because the signal weight was well below
+360. We can now expect the Primary to go through a down cycle
which should last 2-3 days unless signal weight turns so strongly
positive that it truncates the length of the cycle as it did on
4/20-4/21. But we will wait and watch.
The
trading model, plus a buck, is flat and no short signal can been
generated because the slope of the Secondary is up and is not confirming
the direction of the Primary.
Apr
27:
11:00am EXIT LONG NOT CONFIRMED.
Signal
weight became less negative during the previous bar, dropping below
-1100 and hence the exit long signal did NOT confirm. For
the current bar, if signal weight is less than +360, the exit signal
will confirm.
The
value of the Primary is now +7469. Most cycles on the Primary
have ranges of -8000 to +8000. Higher or lower ranges are
a function of the relative values of signal weight during that cycle
and have very little, if any, relevance for future cycles. Users
should focus on the current level of the Primary and the current
level of signal weight needed to sustain or reverse the Primary.
In other words, if the high of the last Primary was +11,000,
there is no reason to expect that the next high will be +11,000.
It simply is what it is.
Apr
27: 10:30am EARLY EXIT LONG / EARLY SLOPE CHANGE
DOWN SIGNAL ISSUED
An
Early Exit Long /Early slope change signal has been issued that
will confirm at the end of this bar (11am) IF signal weight is -1260
or more. If signal weight is -1100, for example, the signal
will not confirm. However, due to the large Change number,
it will be very likely the signal will confirm at the following
bar.
Apr
27: 10:00am
Understanding
how the Primary changes slope is KEY to understanding how to use
the Delineator. Slope changes initiate new trends and can
only confirm at the close of a bar. The Stats window on the
program generates two lists, one for the Primary and one for the
Secondary, that show what signal weight is needed for the current
bar to affect a slope change. Knowing when a slope change
or enter signal can confirm before it happens is central to understanding
how to use the program effectively.
Looking
at the numbers below we can see that the Slope is +110, the Change
-146. Slope/Change=# of bars to the next early slope change.
110/146=.75. This is telling us that if signal weight
remains at -1450, at the opening of the next bar, 10:30am, an early
exit long / early slope change down signal will be issued. The
Stats window tells us that for the current bar, negative signal
weight of -3660 is needed to generate an early slope change this
bar (which is unlikely since +-3400 is about the maximum signal
weight.)
Apr
27: Opening Read
Very
strong negative signal weight is present at the opening. An
early slope change down / exit long signal is expected during the
next bar (Slope/Change=# of bars=1.3). New readers should
read the Manual section to understand the sequence of signals that
the Delineator generates.
Since
the Secondary is still up, no short signal will be generated assuming
we get a slope change down this morning. The trading model
is flat having achieved its profit target on Friday.
Apr
24: Closing Read
Both
long signals this week, Tuesday and today's, achieved their profit
targets. Nice week. Looking back at this week's up cycle
on the Primary we can see a two part move. Typically, during
cycles that bend back on themselves, the second part has more risk
because we already know that it cannot last as long as a normal
cycle. Also, the Change number is small relative to a normalized
up or down cycle origination, hence sustainability is clearly reduced.
From
the model's point of view, it doesn't matter--but from ours it
does because we are risk averse. It's in most of our natures.
So how can we use this where we don't end up avoiding profits
more than losses. Is there a rule of thumb when we can logically
avoid a "bad" signal. I'll write more about this next
week. For now, please read the Archive section for the week
ended Jan 9th and Mar20 for some insights to this.
Signal
weight closed extremely strong at +1997, the Change now in single
digits at +5. Signal weight determines the motion of the Primary.
Any moderation in signal weight on Monday will cause the Change
to turn strongly negative pulling the Primary down towards the next
slope change either on Monday or Tuesday. Today's strong signal
weight will add to the Secondary making it more resistant to a slope
change early next week.
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