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**NOTICE**
Please make sure
the following servers are the only servers listed in your continuumclient.ini
file. Make sure the AutoUpdateServerList is set to FALSE.
You can only modify the file if the program is shut off. Modify
then restart the software.
Server=216.23.226.191:23100
65535 01/01/1801 00:00:00 (cc05-hwd.esignal.com)
Server=216.23.226.208:23100
65535 01/01/1801 00:00:00 (cc12-hwd.esignal.com)
June
26: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed modestly positive at +664, the Change +120. The
Secondary closed up on the day taking the short signal issued earlier
today out of confirmation but still valid. The trading model
is short SPY at 91.69 with a GTC cover at 90.79.
June
26: 3pm
Signal
weight +488, the Change +3.6. The trading model is short SPY
at 91.69 with a GTC cover at 90.79.
June
26: 2pm
Instead
of watching paint dry, check out this cool link: NorthPole
Webcam
June
26: 1:30pm Enter Short Signal Confirmed at SPY 91.69
The
enter short signal confirmed, the trading model is short SPY at
91.69 with a GTC cover at 90.79 (plus 1%). Signal weight is
weakly positive at +214, the Change -20. Oh..btw, signal weight
is too flat to achieve a lead balloon effect at the moment.
June
26: 1PM Enter Short Not Confirmed, Early Enter still
active
The
enter short did not confirm because signal weight turned weakly
positive moving the Slope value under the -80 needed to confirm
the signal at 1pm. The early enter is still active and will
confirm at the end of this bar if signal weight is less than +420.
Being
able to always know what the Primary will do given any level of
signal weight is key to knowing the direction price will take. So,
while we are currently expecting a short signal, we also know that
if signal weight rose to +560 the Secondary would turn up and the
enter short signal would be invalidated as long as the Secondary
was up. It's even possible if signal weight rose to +2020
(see your stats Xslope value) that the Primary would turn back up
and continue to rise as long as it was supported by signal weight.
With
this knowledge, we know that at this specific point in time, there
is no trend, there is no basis for making a trade in either direction
until there is a confirmed trading signal supported by signal weight.
The most opportune times to make trades is just following
a slope change when it is impossible for the slope to change back.
We obviously aren't there yet.
June
26: 12:50pm
Signal
weight is now +29, the Slope -74, at this point the enter short
won't confirm at 1pm.
June
26: 12:30 Slope Change Down Confirmed/Early Enter Short
Signal Issued
The
slope change confirmed and an early enter short signal has been
issued that will confirm at 1pm if signal weight is -70 or more.
Signal weight is very weakly negative at -117.
June
26: 12pm Early Slope Change Down signal issued
An early
slope change down signal has been issued that will confirm at 12:30pm
if signal weight is less than +640. Signal weight is only weakly
negative at this time. To get the Slope to -80 to generate
a short signal this bar, signal weight would need to climb to -1550+,
so we're still a ways away from a short signal. There is also
the risk that signal weight could reverse and go positive...so there's
nothing to do at the moment but watch and wait to see which way
signal weight turns.
June
26: 11:30am
Negative
signal weight of -535 is needed to trigger and confirm an early
slope change/slope change down this bar.
June
26: 11am
Signal
weight remains weakly negative at -460, the Change -91 and Slope
+79. An early slope change down signal will be issued at 11:30
given existing signal weight.
June
26: 10am
Signal
weight remains modestly negative at -617, the Change -128 and the
Slope +254. An early slope change down signal is expected
in 1.98 bars.
June
26: Opening Read
At the
opening, modestly negative signal weight of -651 has the Change
-149, the Slope +384. As mentioned in yesterday's closing
read, if signal weight is +550 the Secondary will turn up and a
long signal will be issued. If signal weight remains negative,
a slope change down is expected later this morning.
June
25: Closing Read
Watching
the Change flatline today while signal weight continually increased
reminds me of an image of a race car in high gear going nowhere,
its tires smoking because someone left the breaks on. Price
can continue up from here, but without positive weight tomorrow,
whatever higher levels are attained will fail...the classic lead
balloon scenario (I've been waiting for one of these for months
as you know) will unfold.
Now,
it is possible for the Secondary to turn up tomorrow. The
very strong signal weight over the past two days has reduced the
positive weight needed to cause a slope change up. We'll know
the number in the morning. With the Slope of the Secondary
-20, it may not take much. If we got a slope change up on
the Secondary tomorrow, a middle long signal will issue.
This
process of always being able to predict what level of weight creates
what amount of increase or decrease in the Primary allows you to
identify the time when you are certain of a slope change, then focus
your trading at that point. The Plus a Buck application is
but a single application of the Delinator and good traders know
that timing is everything. We know we cannot predict every
motion in price. But we know that we can predict the motion
of the Primary by using signal weight. We know that you don't
want to be in a position that's against the direction of the Delineator
especially after a slope change!!
June
25: 2:45pm
Extremely
positive signal weight of +2061 has the Change -4.5, the value of
the Primary now at +6867. With signal weight over 2000 and
the Change a negative number, users show know what to expect next:
any gains from here will be unsustainable in the current up
cycle on the Primary. The gap from 6/22 as been filled and
we can expect that with any moderation in signal weight the Change
will fall to triple digits quickly effecting a slope change shortly
thereafter. This is the same repeatable and measurable pattern
that leads to every slope change and every trading signal.
June
25: 12:30pm
No change
from the prior posting. Remember, a change in price is irrelevant,
a change in the Primary is relevant.
I'm off to the gym, next post at 2:30pm.
June
25: 12pm
Very
strong signal weight has developed at +1884, the Change now only
+2. Once again the Primary's back at that point where it will
take extremely strong signal weight to hold the Primary up. The
top of the gap from the 22nd is 92.01. Unlikely we'll get
a slope change today.
June
25: 10:30am
Signal
weight is now strongly positive at +1097. Unless weight turns
negative, the up cycle on the Primary will continue today and a
slope change is pushed out to Friday.
June
25: 10am
Signal
weight has reversed and is now +606, the Change -69. The timing
for the next slope change has obviously been affected and at
the current level of signal weight is more than 4 hours away.
June
25: Opening Read
Negative
signal weight of -752 at the open has the Change -147, the Slope
+562. An early slope change down signal is likely in 3.8 bars
(Slope/Change=# of bars) with the current level of signal weight. The
next down cycle on the Primary should hit the SPY 88 target described
in the June
18th Closing Read posting.
June
24: Closing Read
Extremely
positive signal weight persisted all day and closed at +1781, the
Change -17.6. To keep rising tomorrow, even stronger positive
weight will be needed otherwise the Change will fall to a very large
negative number. Any moderation in signal weight tomorrow
will cause a slope change by mid-day to late tomorrow and a
new short signal most likely by Friday.
June
24: 2:30pm
Extremely
positive signal weight can last only so long after it pushes the
Primary Slope to its extreme. Then it has only one way to go.
With the Change now at -6, any moderation in signal weight
will move the Primary toward the next slope change and short signal.
Also notice the value of the Primary is will be a positive
number next bar.
I have
meetings the rest of the afternoon. Closing comments later
in the day.
June
24: 2:15pm
June
24: 12pm
No changes
from the prior postings. The next update will be when there's
something meaningful to report.
June
24: 11am
Extremely
strong positive weight continues at +2452, the Change +109. The
bottom of the gap from the 22nd is 91.17, the top is 92.03. Trading
model is neutral waiting for the next slope change down.
NOTE:
Server CC11-hwd seems to be running behind today. Remove it
from your list in continuumclient.ini leaving only those shown above.
June
24: 10am
Extremely
strong signal weight of +2026, the Change +108. Looking at
your Stats window shows that the Secondary needs positive signal
weight of +4780 to turn up which is impossible since +-3500 signal
weight is maximum. If signal weight remains extremely positive
all day, then we can expect it to eat up the Change number by mid
afternoon setting the stage for a slope change down either Thursday
or Friday and a new short signal.
June
24: Opening Read
At the
opening, Signal weight is +1635, the Change +108. The trading
model is neutral as the up cycle on the Primary is not confirmed
by the Secondary.
June
23: Closing Read
The
down cycle in the Primary ended today a half hour before the close.
The up cycle on the Primary can be expected to last 1-2 days
and have limited upside due to the fact that the Secondary is firmly
in a down cycle. The next trading signal would be expected
within 2-3 days unless signal weight turns strongly negative tomorrow
which would generate a short signal earlier and turn the Primary
back on itself.
June
23: 3:30pm Exit Short / Slope Change Up signal issued.
The
exit short/slope change signal has confirmed at spy 89.64. The
trading model is neutral (gray dots) because the up cycle on the
Primary is not confirmed by the direction of the Secondary. Had
the trading model not achieved its goal yesterday or today, the
exit signal would be utilized to exit and cover the short trade.
This is why stops are not used as the direction of the Primary
and its slope is what is important, not price.
June
23: 3pm Early Exit Short / Early Slope Change Up signal
issued
An Early
Exit Short signal has been issued that will confirm at 3:30pm if
signal weight is less than -490.
June
23: 2:45pm
We can
see by the numbers below that an early exit short signal will be
issued at 3pm as the Change now exceeds the Slope.
June
23: 1:15pm
Signal
weight now +46, the Change +62 and the Slope -127. At the
current weight, an early exit signal is expected in 1 hour. Since
users have already taken their profits, no trading action is required.
June
23: 12:15pm
No great
changes from the prior post. Users following the model are
already flat and awaiting the next trading signal...so you all get
at least 2 days off. Play golf. There is no way the
Secondary can turn up within a 3-4 day period. So the next
up cycle will be unconfirmed, no long signal possible. Accordingly,
the next trading signal would come following an early slope change
down in two-three days.
June
23: 11am
Modestly
negative signal weight of -663 has developed, the Change +52 and
Slope -349.
June
23: 10:30am
Signal
weight has turned weakly negative at -219, the Change +80. The
timing for the slope change/ early exit signal has been extended
out somewhat.
NOTE:
I received several emails this morning about after hours trading
requirements. Some brokerages do not offer these services,
but it is important that users have these capabilities. While
it is never a good idea to enter a trade in pre or
after hours trading, it is always a good idea to exit
if the opportunity presents itself. Over the past few months
there have been several opportunities to achieve a better exit in
pre or post hours trading. If your brokerage doesn't offer
after hours trading, you should find one that does. Sometimes
online brokerages offer these services by phone and not online.
You should check to find out.
June
23: Opening Read
June
23: 10am
Signal
weight now at +645, the Change +135 and Slope -418. An early
exit short signal in 3 bars given the current level of signal weight.
June
23: Opening Read
Moderately
strong signal weight of +826 after the opening has the Change +165,
the Slope +558. We can project an early exit short signal
in 3.4 bars given the current signal weight. The trading model
is flat having achieved its target yesterday a few minutes after
the close in after hours trading.
UPDATE:
AT 16:02 SPY TRADED THROUGH 89.23. The trading model
achieved its target price of 89.23 and is now flat.
June
22: Closing Read
Extremely
negative signal weight persisted all day generating a slope
change down and short signal earlier this morning. The trading
model is short SPY at 90.13 with a GTC cover at 89.23. At
the close, with signal weight of -2853 the Change is only -25 but
not yet in single digits. We know that it will take similar
signal weight tomorrow to keep the Change in negative numbers and
with the Slope above 700, it will take at least half a day of positive
weight to generate an early exit signal.
Users
in the signal should monitor after hours trading today and before
the opening tomorrow to execute the cover if SPY trades to
the target level.
June
22: 3pm
Signal
weight continues extremely negative at -2710, the Change now -25.
The value of the Primary is -3241 and declining by 700 ticks
per bar. The trading model has not yet achieved its profit
target as the low so far on SPY is 89.35, the target at 89.23.
June
22: 2pm
Signal
weight -2721, the Change -44. The optimal period for a secondary
trade has expired, yet we will still expect any price rise to resolve
back in the direction of the Primary. The trading model is
short SPY at 90.13 with a GTC cover at 89.23.
June
22: 1pm
Signal
weight remains extremely negative at -2622, the Change -63.
June
22: 12pm
Signal
weight extremely negative at -2604, the Change -91, SPY making new
lows for the day. The trading model is short SPY at 90.13
with a GTC cover at 89.23.
June
22: 11:30am Enter Short Signal confirmed at SPY 90.13
As expected,
the Enter Short signal has confirmed at 11:30 at SPY 90.13. The
trading model is short SPY at 90.13 with a GTC cover exit at 89.23.
If price moves back up to the 90.80+- area over the next two
bars, a secondary trade will be identified if signal weight remains
strongly negative and the Change is greater than -30+-. If
entered at 90.80+-, the target for this trade would be near the
lows of the day in the 90.10+- area depending on your requirements
for gain. (enter short email did not go out again...will be fixed
in the next version)
June
22: 11am Slope Change Down Confirmed, Early Enter Short
signal issued
As expected
the Slope change has confirmed and an early enter short signal has
been issued that will confirm at 11:30am if signal weight is greater
than -360. There will be the potential for a secondary trade
today if price rises to 90.80+- after the signal and signal weight
and the Change value remain supportive. 90.80 represents the
low of the 11am bar on 6/17 where the double chevron up is located.
Secondary trades are workable within the first two hours following
a trading signal.
June
22: 10:30am EARLY SLOPE CHANGE DOWN SIGNAL ISSUED
An early
slope change negative as been issued that will confirm at 11am if
signal weight is greater than -1060. The Slope is now -62 and
to get to -80 signal weight needs to be -2655 this bar to issue
an early enter short, which isn't too likely. An early enter
short/ slope change confirmation is expected then at 11am which
should lock up your program.
June
22: 10am
Signal
weight has turned extremely negative at -2190, the Slope +74 and
the Change -147. An early slope change down signal is expected
at 10:30. We can also predict that the value of the Slope
will be -73 at the next bar change leading to a double signal
at 11am--confirmation of the slope change and enter short.
June
22: Opening Read
At the
opening, strongly negative signal weight of -1311 has the Change
-128, the Slope +263. An early slope change down signal is
expected in 2 bars (Slope/Change=# of bars). A short signal
is also expected shortly thereafter. Users are encouraged
to re-read last week's June 18th comments here: ../delineator/archive/archive_06192009.htm#june18
. Today's expected short signal and last week's failure in
price to move against the motion of the Secondary is what I am trying
to teach users to be able to predict using the software. When
signal weight does not support a move in price, price will move
back to the direction of the Delineator.
June
19: Closing Read
For
the first time in many weeks, no new trading signals were issued
this week. The short signal from last week completed and achieved
its target this week and that was the only activity. The new down cycle on the Secondary is quite strong
if you measure that by the amount of signal weight needed to flip
the Secondary up. The current unconfirmed up cycle on the
Primary should end on Monday leading to a new short signal
mid-morning given any negative signal weight.
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