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July
10: Closing Read
The
slope change down never confirmed as signal weight moderated to
-414 from near -1000. The early slope change is still in effect
and may confirm at 7am Monday morning.
July
10: 3pm Early Slope Change Down signal issued
An early
slope change down signal has been issued that will confirm at 3:30
if signal weight is greater than -800. There is no possibility
of a short signal today. Next posting well after the close...have
a nice weekend.
July
10: 2:17pm
Yawn.....
July
10: 1pm
Signal
weight -957, the Change -36 and running out of steam at this level
of signal weight with the slope at +70 and a slope change still
2 bars away. Given this and the fact that the current up cycle
is only 1 day old, the assumption would be that unless signal weight
turned extremely negative, the up cycle would last into early next
week before another short signal is issued.
July
10: 11:30am
Signal
weight has turned strongly negative at -1505, the Change -90, Slope
+214. An early slope change down is expected in 2.3 bars (Slope/Change=#
of bars). Price has moved back near the lows from the 8th
as the strength of the down trend on the Secondary is being expressed.
July
10: 10:30am
Signal
weight remains moderately negative at -631, the Change -68, Slope
+412. The Primary is now -6178, up from -12,000 yesterday.
Unless signal weight turns more strongly negative, a slow
day is ahead.
July
10: Opening Read
Signal
weight opened at -950, the Change -105, Slope +539. At this
level of weight, an early slope change down is possible in 5.1 bars,
a new short signal a bar or two later.
July
9: Closing Read
A slope
change up was triggered this morning after 4 full days of a down
cycle on the Primary. At the close, signal weight was +1039,
the Change -0.23. Users will recognized that strong positive
weight will be needed tomorrow to keep the unconfirmed up cycle
on the Primary going. If negative signal weight develops,
it is possible we'll get a another short signal mid-day.
July
9: 2:45pm
Signal
weight is strongly positive at +1554, the Change +39. The
trading model is neutral because the Secondary is only confirming
short signals. The value of the Primary is -8900 after reaching
-12,727 earlier today.
July
9: 12:30pm
Signal
weight has turned much more positive at +1241, the Change +65. The
trading model is neutral and I'm off to the gym.
July
9: 10:30am Exit Short/Slope Change Up signal confirmed
As expected,
the exit short/slope change signal has confirmed. The trading
model is now neutral (gray color).
July
9: 10am Early Exit Short / Early Slope Change
Up signal issued
An early
exit short signal has been issued that will confirm at 10:30 if
signal weight is greater than -220. Since the trading model
achieved its target on Friday and Monday and is already flat, no
action in the trading model is required. Signal weight has
backed off from its stronger earlier levels.
July
9: Opening Read
Signal
weight of +1124 at the open, the Change +146, Slope -38. Obviously
an early exit short / early slope change up signal will be issued
at 10am and will no doubt confirm at 10:30. As the Secondary
is firmly down, no long signal can be issued.
July
8: Closing Read
Signal
weight stayed negative most of the day reaching -2000 mid-day as
price made new lows for this down cycle on the Primary. At
the close, signal weight was -1295, the Change +28.6. The
Primary is now -12,665 and is becoming over extended. Any
moderation in signal weight will turn it up quickly. As no
long signal can be issued when it does turn up, it's unlikely we'll
see any trading signal this week. However, if we do, it will
be another short signal as the Secondary is firmly in a down trend.
July
8: 10am
Signal
weight has turned weakly negative at -61, the Change +77, Slope
-102, the Primary now -11,000. A slope change up is expected
today.
I have
meetings all day again today so this is my last post until about
3pm pst. The email system will be on but since no trading
signal can be issued today, you should be doing other things.
July
8: Opening Read
At the
opening, weakly positive signal weight of +463 has the Change +117,
the Slope -153. An early exit short / early slope change up
signal is expected in 1.3 bars (Slope/Change = # of bars ). No
long signal can be issued because the Secondary is down.
July
7: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed extremely negative at -2151, the Change -18. The
Primary is now below -10,000. For the first time in weeks,
a respectable down cycle on the Primary.
July
7: 2pm
No real
changes from the previous posting with the exception that the Primary
is now past -10,000. Any moderation in signal weight will
turn the Change up quickly and a slope change up with follow soon
thereafter.
I've
got a few meetings today so I won't be able to post again until
after the close.
July
7: 1:15pm
Signal
weight is -1559, the Change +9. Since it is unlikely the Secondary
will turn back up today, no long signal can obviously be issued,
so today's action should only be of casual interest to users following
the model. For more advanced users, since signal weight has
to continue to grow more negative to keep the Change a negative
number, and with the value of the Primary now -9542, further declines
in price will be unsustainable and will at some point set up a reversal.
July
7: 10am
Strongly
negative signal weight of -1193 continues, the Change +25. Until
signal weight reverses, the Primary will continue lower although
slowly.
July
7: Opening Read
Negative
signal weight of -962 continues this morning, the Change +39. The
Secondary needs +2180 to turn back up today which is unlikely. Positive
signal weight will be needed today to turn the Primary up.
July
6: Closing Read
Despite
the strongly negative signal weight most of the day, a positive
Change was present from the opening. We can expect a slope
change up in the morning tomorrow if signal weight is positive.
The Secondary has just begun a down trend and it is unlikely
that signal weight can turn it up tomorrow so do not expect a long
signal to be generated tomorrow.
At the
close, signal weight was -908, the Change +49 and the value of the
Primary is now -7226. Now that many of our users have been
with the software for several months, notice the pattern of the
Primary from 6/26 to 7/1. We know that when the Primary turns
back upon itself at a high or low level (+8000 to -8000), any further
moves in price against the direction of the Primary are unsustainable.
Inevitably, with patience, it will move toward the opposite
extreme and price will follow. The rest is up to your trading
skills.
July
6: 2:30pm
Signal
weight has moderated somewhat to -1377, the Change +30 and the value
of the Primary is now -6444. Signal weight will still need
to turn positive to get a slope change up today.
July
6: 12pm
Strong
negative signal weight continues at -1657, the Change +23, Slope
-594. Signal weight will need to moderate substantially to
get a slope change up today.
Update
12:30pm: no change from the prior posting. I'm off to the
gym, next post at 2:30pm.
July
6: 11am
Signal
weight has turned more strongly negative at -1750, the Change +19.
The level of the double chevron up from 6/23 has been tested
at 88.85.
July
6: 10am
Signal
weight of -1152 has the Change +48. Several hours at -1000+-
signal weight will move the Change closer to zero. The
trading model is flat per today's previous comments.
July
6: Opening Read
The
opening tick today was 88.86, any user GTC covers that were not
made on Friday after hours, at 89.54 would have been filled at 88.86
to 88.90.
With
negative signal weight of -976, the Change is +61. The trading
model is neutral having achieved its profit targets both during
Friday's after hours trading and at the opening this morning at
88.86.
July
2: AFTER HOURS FILL ON TRADING MODEL
As users
know, fills can come on after hours trading. At 1:35 SPY trading
through 89.54, the trading model achieved the target.
July
2: Closing Read
Well
so much for the short covering at the close. Signal weight
closed at -2431, the Change -17 and the Slope -762. The short
signal at 90.44 from this morning is still in effect, a GTC cover
at 89.54.
Have
a safe and sane 4th of July! No fireworks in the wildfire
capital of the world.
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