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July
17: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained weakly negative most of the day, closing at -98,
the Change +7 and Slope -344. The Primary is now +7497 down
from +12,000 from the slope change down on Thursday. The clear
trend in signal weight this past week has been very strongly positive
driven by exogenous events. Next week we should see another
long signal.
July
17: 1pm
Signal
weight weakly negative at -330. Wouldn't be a bit surprised
to see it turn positive given the recent trend in signal weight
as reflected in the Secondary. So with that I'll say have
a good weekend as I'm off to the club to watch some of the Open
and then tee one up.
July
17: 12pm
Signal
weight remains modestly negative at -646, the Change -33. The
Open is a lot more interesting to watch today than the market.
July
17: 11am
The
move in SPY since the last slope change up on the Primary has been
nearly vertical and numerous users have wondered what this means. It's
always been my opinion that price is a function of signal weight
and that big moves either up or down in price are relatively
meaningless to the trading model. My personal goal is simply
to net 3 points a month. Doing so yields a 36% return over
the course of 12 months. If I can make my 3 in half a
month, I take the other half off and play more golf. I am
not particularly interested in "where the market is going"
because, frankly, I don't care what level SPY is trading. Since
we can never predict magnitude or duration, knowing direction and
how long it may take to get a slope change is really all we need
to know to achieve our trading goals. Resist the amateur impulse
to get in or get out because of fear or greed. We're pros
and pros always keep their focus. If you don't like what you're
seeing, or feel some sense of urgency to do something outside of
the discipline, turn off your computer--stop listening to CNBC and
come back next week. The Delineator and the market will still
be here.
At 11am,
signal weight is modestly negative at -649 and there's no possibility
of any signals today.
July
17: Opening Read
Modestly
negative signal weight of -895, the Change -93, the Slope -160 after
a half hour this morning. The Secondary cannot change slope
for at least two days with strongly negative signal weight.
July
16: Closing Read
Signal
weight turned very strongly positive at +1533, the Change +32 and
Slope -67. It is possible for the Primary to change slope
tomorrow back up possibly generating another long signal. The
more likely scenario is for the Primary to complete a down cycle
before another signal is generated. Signal weight is always
the key and certainly over the period of the last up cycle on the
Primary, it has been quite strong. From the point of the last
slope change up on 7/9, price has risen almost 6 points corresponding
with a move on the Primary from -12,000 to +12,000.
July
16: 2:15pm
Signal
weight has turned modestly positive at +673, the Change -1.3. It's
highly unlikely there can be a slope change back up today or tomorrow
unless signal weight approaches +3000. The trading model is
neutral (gray color).
July
16: 1:30pm Exit Long/Slope Change down signal issued
The
exit long/slope change down signal confirmed at 12:30pm. The
Primary is now neutral as the Secondary is up. Signal weight
is weakly negative at -163, the Slope -209 and Change -45.
July
16: 12pm
Signal
weight moved back to -288, the Change -93, slope +14. No confirmation,
but very likely at the conclusion of the current bar.
I just
got a call and have to be away from the screens for a few hours...back
later.
July
16: 11:30am Early Exit Long signal issued
An early
exit long / early slope change down signal has been issued that
will confirm at 12pm if signal weight is greater than -580. On
the email, the SCP is "very low" as signal weight is currently
-610. Remember, SCP (signal confirmation probability) relates
to the current level of signal weight to the level needed to affect
the slope change.
July
16: 11am
Signal
weight now virtually flat at -200, the Change -106, Slope +120.
An early exit long /early slope change down signal is expected
next bar given the current level of signal weight--earlier if signal
weight turns more negative.
July
16: 10am
Signal
weight is -497, the Change -157, Slope +343. An early slope
change down/exit long signal is expected in 1 hour under the current
signal weight, sooner if signal weight turns more negative. Negative
signal weight of -2900 is needed to turn the Secondary down, hence
no short signal is expected today.
July
16: Opening Read
Weakly
negative signal weight of -575 at the open, the Change -181, the
Slope +465. An early slope change down / exit long signal
is expected in 2.5 bars. With the value of the Primary at
+11,983, any further rises in price will be unsustainable during
the current cycle.
July
15: Closing Read
Exogenous
events obviously the cause of today's increase in both signal weight
and price. Signal weight closed excessively positive at +3000,
the Change +2. The value of the Primary is now +11,513 and
rising by +640 ticks per bar. It's been quite awhile since
the Primary has moved from -12,000 to +12,000 within a single cycle.
Obviously,
any moderation in signal weight tomorrow will force the Change to
a very high negative number.
July
15: 10am
Signal
weight continues extremely strong at +2280, the Change +36. The
top of the down-side gap from 7/2 is 92.30.
This
is the last posting until well after the close today as I have meetings
all day.
July
15: Opening Read
The
trading model has an edge over our individual accounts in that it
doesn't think about risk being anything other than the same each
time. My personal trading account always underperforms the
model because I end up avoiding more gains than losses. I've
mentioned this many times before on these pages and the current
signal is a prime example.
At the
opening, signal weight is +1684, the Change +14. The trading
model is flat having achieved its target in last night's after hours
trading. The opening tick today was 91.81, 50cents higher
than the profit target.
July
15: Pre-Opening
SPY
is trading at 91.75 at 9:00am in pre-opening trading. The
Newman Middle signal achieved its profit target in last night's
session at 91.30. If you haven't yet exited the trade, consider
doing it now.
July
14: 4:33pm AFTER HOURS SPY TRADES BEYOND 91.30
In after
hours trading, SPY is trading above the profit target.
July
14: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at +1472, the Change +6. The trading model is
long SPY at 90.40 with a GTC exit at 91.30. With the Change
essentially zero, increasing signal weight will be needed tomorrow
to keep the Primary up; and with the Slope at +336, any negative
signal weight will result in a slope change down rather quickly.
It also may be possible that the Secondary will flip back
down tomorrow which, if we get a slope change, may trigger a short
signal as well.
July
14: 1pm
Signal
weight is +1137, the Change -6. The trading model is long
the Newman middle signal at 90.40 with a GTC exit at 91.30. A
Newman is a trading signal that is issued when the Slope has
already achieved its maximum and the Change is zero. Both
Newman and middle signals carry more risk than pure signals.
Oh..and
I forgot to mention, if signal weight falls below +740 today, the
Secondary will turn back down and the long signal will be out of
confirmation.
July
14: 11:30am Enter Long Signal Issued at SPY 90.40
An Enter
Long signal confirmed at 11:30am as signal weight rose above +740
enough to turn the Secondary up. This signal is a high risk
signal in that the Change number is already a negative number. But
a signal is a signal and the trading model is long SPY at 90.40
with a GTC exit at 91.30.
July
14: 11:27 Early Enter Long Signal issued
Signal
weight is +744 and an early enter long signal has been issued that
may confirm at 11:30.
July
14: 11am
Signal
weight has turned weakly negative at -121, the Change -70, Slope
+342. At this level of signal weight, an early slope change
down will be issued in about 5 bars.
July
14: 10am
Signal
weight is weakly positive at +70, the Change -77. If signal
weight turns moderately positive and reaches +740, we'd expect the
Change number to still be negative making any long signal a
higher risk Newman. Also notice the value of the Primary is
now +347.
July
14: Opening Read
The
Secondary will turn up today if signal weight exceeds +740, generating
a middle long signal on the Primary. At the open, signal weight
is +487, the Change -70.
July
13: Closing Read
The
weakish negative signal weight at the open triggered an early slope
change down which was never confirmed. The Primary wanted
to rise today as was evidenced in the Stats number explained earlier
today and further reinforced by a fairly large continuing Change
value even with +2000+ signal weight throughout the day. The
longer it takes the Change to move to zero, the longer we can expect
the cycle on the Primary to last.
Today's
very strongly positive signal weight may enable the Secondary to
change slope tomorrow, signal weight depending. If the Secondary
changes slope, a middle long signal will be issued rather quickly.
July
13: 2:45pm
Signal
weight extremely positive at +2131, the Change +40. The value
of the Primary is now -2000, up from -12k at the last slope change
on the Primary.
July
13: 12:30pm
Signal
weight has turned strongly positive at +1740, the Change +69 and
the up cycle on the Primary continues.
July
13: 11:21am
With
signal weight at +688, the Change is +50, Slope +118. We can
see that the Primary still wants to rise by virtue of the Change
number. The trading model is neutral (gray color) as the slope
of the Secondary is firmly down, needing several days of very strongly
positive signal weight to turn it up.
July
13: 10:30am
Signal
weight moderated to -295, the Change +9.5, Slope +22. The
slope change down has not confirmed but is still in effect and may
confirm this bar if signal weight is -720 or greater. A quick
examination of the Stats window shows that the Primary wants to
rise: to reach -80, negative signal weight of -2300 is needed,
to reach +80, positive weight of +880 is needed.
July
13: 10am Early Slope Change Down signal issued
The
early slope change down will confirm at 10:30am if signal weight
is -680 or greater. Negative signal weight of -836 currently
has the Slope -7.87, the Change only -17.45. Most of the potential
energy in the Change was used up Friday. Unless signal weight
turns very strongly negative during this bar, it will take several
bars for the Slope to reach -80 to trigger a short signal.
July
13: Opening Read
Weak
positive signal weight at the open has the Slope +39, the Change
+30. To generate a slope change down, negative signal weight
of -680 is needed this bar.
July
10: Closing Read
The
slope change down never confirmed as signal weight moderated to
-414 from near -1000. The early slope change is still in effect
and may confirm at 7am Monday morning.
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