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July
31: Closing Read
Pretty
much a flatline all day long as signal weight remained near +1000.
On Monday, positive signal weight will be needed otherwise
a slope change down / exit long signal will be issued sometime Monday
morning. The trading model is long SPY at 99.75 with a GTC
exit at 100.75.
July
31: 12pm
Signal
weight continues strongly positive at +1068, the Change -33. The
trading model is long SPY at 99.75 with a GTC exit at 100.75. Users
are advised to continue to watch the trend in signal weight, not
price action. The trading model will only exit the position
at an exit long signal.
Note:
This is the last posting for the day as I have to be away
from the screens for the balance of the day. I will post closing
comments this evening.
July
31: 11am
Signal
weight has risen back to +1012, the Change -43. Continue to
expect price to test the highs and move in the direction of the
Primary.
July
31: 10am
Signal
weight has declined to +239, the Change -92, Slope +553. It
will still take several hours to get an early exit signal at the
current level of signal weight, but until there is a slope change,
continue to expect price to resolve back in the direction of the
Primary.
July
31: Opening Read
Moderately
positive signal weight of +530, the Change -87, the Slope +635.
The trading model is still long SPY at 99.75 with a GTC exit
at 100.75. At the current level of signal weight, an early
exit long signal is more than 7 bars away. Focus on signal
weight, not price action. Price will continue to resolve back
in the direction of the Primary.
July
30: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed strongly positive at +2291, the Change +5. The
trading model is still long SPY at 99.75 with a GTC exit at 100.75.
Tomorrow, strongly positive signal weight will be required
to extend the up cycle on the Primary.
July
30: 1:30pm
Signal
weight has risen a bit more to +2502, the Change +94, Slope +616. The
value of the Primary will cross back into positive numbers in less
than 1 hour.
July
30: 12:30pm
Signal
weight continues extremely positive at +2374, the Change +70. The
trading model is long SPY at 99.75 with a GTC exit at 100.75. Price
has retraced back to the 99.12-99.37 (per the previous posting)
area over the past two bars and should retest the highs of the day
as long as signal weight maintains.
July
30: 11:30
Signal
weight continues extremely strongly positive at +2411, the Change
+100. As long as the Change exceeds +30 and signal weight
remains strongly positive, any retracement in price to 99.12-99.37
is an opportunity to trade back in the direction of the Primary
and near the highs of the day. The trading model is long SPY
at 99.75 with a GTC exit at 100.75.
July
30: 11am
As expected,
both signals have confirmed. The trading model is long SPY
at 99.75 with a GTC exit at 100.75. Any move back in price
near 99.37 during the next hour will be an opportunity to enter
a secondary trade or lower the cost of the initial position.
July
30: 10:51am
With
signal weight holding at +2443, it's obvious that both signals will
confirm at 11am. Users following the trading model should
be prepared to enter their long positions at 11am.
July
30: 10:30am Early Slope Change & Early Enter Long
signal issued
As anticipated,
an early slope change / early enter long signal has been issued
that will confirm at 11am if signal weight is greater than +1340.
The dual signal should have locked up your software, a feature
that has been eliminated on the new version which will be issued
in a few months. The trading model will enter a long position
at 11am using $1--Plus a Buck--as the new profit target now that
SPY is near 100.
July
30: 10am
Signal
weight has expanded to +2125, the Change +150, Slope -18. An
early slope change up will be issued this bar if signal weight exceeds
+2500, otherwise, we'll get a dual signal at 10:30--early slope
change, early enter long that should lock up your program. We
can project that with the Change well over +80, that at 10:30am
the Slope will be +140+- well above zero and well above +80 needed
to generate a long signal at 11am.
July
30: Opening Read
Positive
signal weight of +1413 just after the open, the Change +139, Slope
-201. An early slope change up signal is expected within an
hour (Slope/Change =# of bars=1.4) and a new long signal just after
a slope change confirms.
July
29: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed strongly negative at -1032, the Change +17. Tomorrow,
for the Primary to continue lower, signal weight will need to become
increasingly more negative. The waiting game continues.
July
29: 1:30pm
Signal
weight has turned more negative at -1344, the Change -7...the down
cycle continues.
This
is the last posting for today as I have appointments that will take
me away from the screens. It doesn't appear we'll get a slope
change up today unless signal weight reverses--and it's unlikely
signal weight will turn negative enough to flip the Secondary and
generate a middle short signal.
July
29: 12:30pm
No great
changes from the prior posting as you can see in the numbers below:
July
29: 10:30am
The
opening gap has been filled, signal weight remains negative at -935,
the Change +6.4. The value of the Primary is now -84, down
from +10,000 at the last slope change.
July
29: 10am
Signal
weight has moderated a bit to -951, the Change now positive at +5.4.
As per last evening's comments, we know that stronger and
stronger negative weight is needed to keep the Primary from rising
when we're in the final phase of a cycle...that is when the Slope
of the Primary is at its extreme.
July
29: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened at -1302, the Change -15. In two bars, the
value of the Primary will have crossed zero. Still a waiting
game for the next slope change, as positive signal weight will
be needed.
July
28: Closing Read
Signal
weight was strongly negative most of the day but closed only modestly
negative at -461, the Change already positive at +31. If signal
weight opens positive on Wednesday, we can expect the Change to
be +150 or so leading to a slope change up and long signal within
a few bars of the open. If signal weight opens strongly negative
at -1000, we can project that the Change will be either fractionally
positive or marginally negative...either way the Primary will want
to rise tomorrow and further declines in price will be unsustainable
unless signal weight is greater than -2000 (which could only
be caused by some exogenous event and even then it would set up
a big reversal back to the upside in the direction of the Secondary
as it would take several days of -2000 to turn it down.)
July
28: 2:30pm
Signal
weight now starting to moderate at -547, the Change +25. The
value of the Primary is now +1873, down from +10,000 from the last
slope change. Even with very strongly positive signal weight
it's doubtful there's enough time to generate an early slope change
or long signal today as the Slope value is -415.
July
28: NASA TV
Some
very amazing images on nasa tv right now of the shuttle and the
ISS. spacewalk
click link.
July
28: 2pm
With
signal weight -952, the Change is now positive at +4.7. Any
moderation in signal weight from here will turn the Change strongly
positive and begin the process of the next slope change up and long
signal. Price has thus far held the single chevron up from
yesterday morning, and a new chevron has also appeared at the 2pm
bar from yesterday as well.
July
28: 12:15pm
Signal
weight more strongly negative at -1487, the Change -43. 96.70
is the level of the closest double chevron up. The down cycle
continues.
July
28: 10:15am
Signal
weight improved somewhat during the first half hour but has since
moved back more strongly negative at -1233. The down cycle
on the Primary continues.
July
28: Opening Read
Just
past the open, signal weight is -1002, the Change -62, Slope -175.
Unless signal weight turns positive again, a slope change
up may be pushed out until tomorrow.
July
27: Closing Read
During
down cycles, one expects to see signal weight average -1000 to -1500.
The fact that signal weight has averaged positive numbers
during the current downcycle is a clear indication of the strength
of the Secondary expressing itself...the surprise to the upside.
So, for signal weight to turn strongly negative tomorrow,
it will need to be driven by exogenous events, otherwise we can
expect a slope change up and new long signal tomorrow.
July
27: 2:30pm
Signal
weight remains weakly positive at +327, the Change +19.5, Slope
-218. At this rate, an early slope change up is 11.2 bars
away...so we wait.
July
27: 11:30am
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +145, the Change also positive
at +4.3. Signal weight will need to turn strongly positive
(greater than +1000) for several hours before we can project a slope
change up.
July
27: 10:30am
Signal
weight spent most of the early portion of the 10am bar at +300+
but soon failed and has moved back to -384, the Change -31. The
down cycle on the Primary continues.
July
27: 10am
There's
another spacewalk
this morning...excellent images and a lot more interesting than
watching signal weight fluctuate between zero and +-1.
July
27: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened weakly negative at -265, the Change -33. Very
strongly positive signal weight will be needed to flip the Primary
up today so the expectation should be a continuation of the current
down cycle for at least another day. The strength in the Secondary
(meaning the amount of negative weight needed to turn it over) will
keep the Primary in an unconfirmed down cycle, hence no short signals.
The next most likely signal is another long Tuesday.
July
24: Closing Read
Signal
weight turned positive during the 2pm bar and closed at +956, the
Change +30. The strength of the up trend in the Secondary
is expressing itself in signal weight's inability to stay negative
for very long. A slope change up and another long signal may
come sooner than Tuesday.
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