Closing Read Sept 4, 2009

Primary Trend=Down

Age of Current cycle= 5days

1st Target Level=101.14  (achieved 9/1)

2nd Target Level=99.57  (achieved 9/2)

3rd Target Level=98.06

4th Target Level=91.77 (top of the gap from 7/15/09)

PM Update Sept 4:  The Secondary lost 118 ticks to -43.  It may be possible for the Secondary to flip up on Tuesday if signal weight opens very strongly positive.

AM Update Sept 4:  To turn up, signal weight of +3140 is needed.  At the open, the Secondary is losing 20 ticks to -140.

PM Update Sept 3:  The Secondary lost 118 ticks to -160.

AM Update Sept 3:  At the open, the Secondary is losing 69 ticks to -210.  The Secondary cannot turn up today as the signal weight needed to do so exceeds the maximum available.

PM Update Sept 2:  The Secondary gained 23 ticks to -279.

AM Update Sept 2:  The Secondary cannot turn back up for several days even with strongly positive signal weight.  At the open, the Secondary is gaining 24 ticks to -280.  

PM Update Sept 1:  The Secondary gained 131 ticks to -256, the down cycle firmly in place.  For the next several days, the Secondary cannot turn back up as more signal weight is needed than is possible.  I have also identified the next 3 target levels for this down cycle that should be achieved if this cycle lasts 4-6 weeks and is a "normal" (ie: not truncated).

AM Update Sept 1:  At the open, the Secondary is gaining 36 ticks to -161.  To turn back up today, signal weight of +2600 is needed.

PM Update Aug 31:  The Secondary closed up 120 ticks to -125 identifiying a new down cycle on the Secondary.  It still may be possible for the Secondary to flip tomorrow if signal weight is strongly positive.

AM Update Aug 31:  Signal weight of -1422 has the Secondary gaining 93 ticks to -99.  To turn back up, positive weight of +560 is needed at the close.  If the Secondary closes at -80 or below, a new down cycle will have been identified.

Sept 4:  Closing Read

Signal weight picked up at 12:30pm and closed at +2265, the Change +21.  The value of the Primary now +1323, up from -12k two days ago.  The extremely strong positive signal weight may make it possible for the Secondary to flip up on Tuesday which would generate a middle long signal.  But for now our expectation is still for another short signal.

Sept 4:  12pm

Not much to really add, you all see the data.  I'm off to the golf course, I'll update this evening. Have a great holiday and remember...the market's closed on Monday.

Sept 4:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened weakly positive at +364, the Change -48.  The trading model is neutral.

Sept 3:  Closing Read

Signal weight jumped to +1956 only during the last 15 minutes of the day, the Change +43.  Tomorrow, signal weight will need to maintain very strongly positive numbers or the Change will drop negative quickly.  The next most likely signal will be a short signal as the Secondary is firmly in a down trend and cannot change slope for several days.

Sept 3: 2pm

Signal weight strongly positive at +1213, the Change weak at +21 and price going nowhere.  The car's in 3rd gear but isn't moving.  

Sept 3:  1:44pm

BTW, anyone using the new alert audio file from yesterday's posts?

Sept 3:  1pm

Signal weight improving, +1169, the Change now only +33.

Sept 3: 12pm

Signal weight +1007, the Change +43.

Sept 3:  11am

Signal weight now +837 after dropping to -20 during the last half hour.  The Change is +53.  Not much doing.  If signal weight can't hold, expect a new short signal and a much deeper decline probably to the double chevron up on the Secondary at 98.40-98.06 the 3rd target level on the Secondary.  However, we must continue to expect that the new up cycle on the Primary will last at least another day so be agnostic when it comes to how far along it may travel. Until it actually turns down, price will resolve in the direction of the Primary.

Sept 3:  10am

Signal weight now only modestly positive at +596, the Change +54.  

Sept 3:  Opening Read

At the open, signal weight is +931, the Change +85.  The trading model is neutral (gray color) because the Secondary does not confirm the current direction of the Primary.  It will take several days of very strong signal weight to turn the Secondary up.

Sept 2:  Closing Read

Signal weight stayed negative all day despite the slope change up on the Primary.  As mentioned previously, negative signal weight at a slope change up is not the normal pattern and not what we would expect to see.  If signal weight opens strongly positive, we'll get something of a bounce but no long signal as the Secondary is firmly down.  If signal weight opens strongly negative, expect a slope change down and another short signal.

While most of the time if the Primary folds back on itself from an overextended level, such signals typically fail and set up nice reversals in the opposite direction.  However, such behavior at the origination of a new cycle on the Secondary is not all that unusual.

Sept 2:  3pm

Signal weight -611, the Change only +12.5.

Sept 2:  2pm

Signal weight stationary at -484, the Change .   Having a slope change up with continued negative signal weight is eerie, it's unusual.  If signal weight turns strongly negative again, we'll make new lows.

Here's a possible new audio file you may want for your program.  I recommend you preview it before you install.  Click here.  If you like it, right click, save target as, and copy the file to your delineator directory and rename it alert1.wav to overwrite the existing file. You can make your own files as well, just rename them to match the .wav files in the directory now.

Sept 2:  1pm   Exit Short/Slope Change Up signal confirmed at SPY 100.29

The exit short signal has confirmed at SPY 100.19, the trading model is now neutral.  As the Secondary is down and cannot turn up today, no long signal is possible at this time.

Here's a twist:  Now that the slope change has confirmed, if signal weight turns more strongly negative again, it may be possible for another slope change down and another short signal today.  Looking at your STATS window, you can see that -1480 turns the Primary down this bar.  

Sept 2:  12:30pm   Early Exit Short/Early Slope Change Up signal issued

The early exit signal has been issued that will confirm at 1pm if signal weight is -640 or less.

Sept 2:  12pm

Signal weight -517, the Change +46, Slope -33.  An early exit short/early slope change up signal is possible this bar if signal weight is +140 or more, otherwise the early exit signal will come next bar if signal weight doesn't get more negative.

Sept 2:  11:30am

Signal weight continues to moderate.  An early exit signal is very likely next bar or if signal weight exceeds +1000 this bar.

Sept 2: 11am

Signal weight again trying to moderate at -341, the Change +71, Slope -128.  At this level of signal weight, an early exit short/early slope change up signal will be issued in 1.8 bars.

Sept 2:  10am

Signal weight tried to moderate during the last bar reaching only -489 but has turned back down again.  Signal weight -931, the Change +60.

Sept 1:  Opening Read

Moderately strong negative signal weight of -893 at the open, the Change +70.  Signal weight will need to reverse if we're going to get a slope change up today.  The value of the Primary is approaching over extended levels in this the 7th day of the down cycle.

Sept 1:  Closing Read

6 days into the down cycle on the Primary and we finally got some downside on price action.  So here we are again with signal weight very strongly negative at -2539, the Change -16.  You know the drill.  Since the model already achieved its profit target on this signal, for those following the trading model, there's really no reason to watch except for entertainment value as the next possible signal will most likely be another short signal after an unconfirmed up cycle on the Primary.  That up cycle should start tomorrow and conclude within two days if the down cycle on the Secondary is going to last 4-6 weeks.

Sept 1:  3pm

Signal weight holding at -2429, the Change -15, the Primary is now -10,708.

Sept 1:  2pm

Signal weight -2369, the Change -22.  The Primary is now at -9933 and declining by 356 per bar and approaching extended levels again.  The Change should be near zero at the close if signal weight remains where it is now.

Sept 1:  12pm

Signal weight -1998, the Change -31. (mixed up the charts from the last posting...sorry)

Sept 1:  11:30am

Frankly, I'm quite surprised to see signal weight turn strongly negative.  The current down cycle on the Primary is now in its 6th day which is somewhat unusual.  The opening gap from 8/21 has finally been filled.

Signal weight is strongly negative at -1526, the Change now negative at -16, Slope -160.  Signal weight will need to reverse once again if the down cycle is to end today, otherwise we'll be back in the same pattern as the last several days.  The Secondary's new down cycle seems to be exerting its influence.

Sept 1:  11:13am  Trading Model Profit Target Achieved

The trading model achieved its profit target at 101.68 at 11:13am as signal weight turned more strongly negative extending the length of the current down cycle.  The trading model is now flat.

Sept 1:  11am

Signal weight has reversed and now sits at -74, the Change +55 and Slope -74.  The early exit signal has been pushed out as signal weight has failed to hold its positive levels.

Sept 1:  10:30am

Signal weight has moderated somewhat to +926. the Change +116, Slope -85.  At the current level of signal weight, the early exit long/early slope change up signal will be issued at 11am.

Sept 1:  10am

Signal weight is now strongly positive at +1116, the Change +144 and Slope -192.  An early exit short/early slope change up signal is now expected in 1.3 bars.  Since +2600 signal weight is needed to turn the Secondary up today, no long signal is expected unless signal weight exceeds this amount.

Sept 1:  9:50am

Signal weight has turned strongly positive at +930, the Change +155, Slope -336.  If this maintains, the slope change up will occur sooner.

Sept 1:  Opening Read

At the open, signal weight is weakly negative at -389, the Change +90.  At the current level of signal weight, an early exit long/ early slope change up signal is expected in 4.4 bars (Slope/Change=# of bars).

Aug 31:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed at -1959, the Change +9.54.  Given positive signal weight tomorrow, we can expect a slope change up and an end to the current down cycle.  With the Change now positive, for the down cycle to continue, signal weight will need to be at least -2500+ to turn the Change negative again.

Aug 31:  3pm

Signal weight still very strongly negative at -2018, the Change now positive at +3.71.  Signal weight will need to become increasingly more negative going forward else the Change will want to rise.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change up rapidly and lead to the next slope change.

Aug31: 2:45pm

Change at zero.

Aug 31:  2:30pm

Change nearly zero.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn it up quickly.

Aug 31:  2pm

Boring....but the Change is near zero now.  Large set of comments on X in the Advanced section.

Aug 31:  1:11pm

Signal weight still -2270, the Change -25.  More of the same from Friday's action.  In trading environments like these, where watching paint dry is more exciting, users should be aware of trying to force a trade.  Typically, such behavior results in frustration and missed opportunities at the 'right' time.  Best get down on the ground and start doing pushups or just leave the room.

1:30:  Some comments on X and the Accumulator in the Advanced section. I'm going to be following X in the advanced section for the next up cycle on the Primary.

Aug 31:  12pm

No significant changes from the prior posting.  In a couple of hours at the current level of signal weight, the Change will once again reach zero and a reversal in price will be possible at that time.

Aug 31:  11am

Signal weight -2118, the Change -48.  The signal continues in its 4th day with not too much overall change in price other than all attempts to rally since the signal on the 26th have failed and price has resolved back in the direction of the Primary.  No great words of wisdom here other than to be patient and wait for the next signal.

Aug 31:  10am

Very strong negative signal weight continues at -2227, the Change -75 and the Primary's now at -2534.  SPY traded to 101.78 a bit above the profit target.

Aug 31:  Opening Read

At the open, strongly negative signal weight of -1553, the Change -55, Slope -133.  The trading model is still short SPY at 102.68 with a GTC exit at 101.68.

Aug 28:  Closing Read

Pretty dull all day. The signal continues into Monday.

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