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Sept
18: Closing Read
Signal
weight spent most of the day modestly positive closing at +650,
the Change +22. Thus far, this down cycle is mirroring the
previous one in that signal weight continues to stay positive, or
at least not very negative. Signal weight will need to turn
strongly positive to get a slope change up and new long signal on
Monday.
Sept
18: 1:30pm Last post of the day
Signal
weight weakly positive at +470, the Change +32, Slope -271. Unless
signal weight turns strongly negative later today or Monday, this
down cycle appears to be short in duration.
And
with that I'm off for the balance of the day as I have a golf tournament
to attend. Have a great weekend.
Sept
18: Noon
Signal
weight flat, Change flat, trading model flat, aka: flat. If we
break through 106.50 and signal weight turns more negative, SPY
should trade down to 105.60+- where there are a pair of opposing
chevrons from 9/15.
Sept
18: 10am
Signal
weight has turned back down and is now -268, the Change -6. It's
more likely the Primary will continue its down cycle for at least
two more days.
Sept
18: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly positive at +1057, the Change +60. It's
doubtful we'll see a slope change up today, but it's possible if
signal weight remains strongly positive.
Sept
17: Closing Read
The
up cycle on the Primary ended at 1pm. If we compare the level
of signal weight over the past several cycles on the Primary, and
during the last down cycle on the Secondary, we've seen signal weight
become much more positive than it has been negative. While
this is of no consequence to the trading model or its discipline,
it is nonetheless a datapoint that some of us may find useful.
Since signal weight determines future price direction, this
information may be of help to those managing other positions over
different time frames.
The bottom line: the surprise continues to come from the upside.
Year
to date, taking the signals as they were generated (with one
exception), the model has returned just over 28%
gross for the year. Take a moment to compare the chart
to that of the Secondary, paying attention to what signals were
generated after May 13th. Of all the various aspects of the
software and the manner in which signal weight affects the Delineator,
we can easily see that when the Secondary is trending (red or green)
the signals work a high percentage of the time. When the Secondary
can change slope easily, the signals typically fail to achieve their
targets.
Sept
17: 2:30pm
The
exit long signal confirmed at 1pm as expected. The trading
model is neutral because the slope of the Secondary is up.
Sept
17: 12:30pm Early Exit Long Signal Issued
The
early exit long signal has been issued as expected from the last
posting. The exit will confirm at 1pm if signal weight is
less than +820. Signal weight is -198, the Change -72. Since
the Secondary cannot turn back down for at least several days with
very strongly negative signal weight, no short signal will be issued
and the next signal will most likely be another long signal either
late Friday or early next week.
This
is the last post until around 2:30pm as I'm off to the gym.
Sept
17: 12pm
Signal
weight remains weakly positive at +360, the Change -56 and Slope
+47. An early exit long signal will be issued this bar if
signal weight drops to -600, otherwise at the current level of signal
weight the signal will come at the next bar.
Sept
17: 10:30am
Signal
weight turning less positive at +362, the Change -77, Slope +192.
At this level of signal weight the early exit signal is still
more than an hour away.
Sept
17: 10am
Signal
weight has turned more strongly positive at +983, the Change -66.
The expected slope change down will be pushed out further
in the day unless signal weight again reverses and turns negative.
Since the trading model already achieved the profit target
for this cycle, it will be taking the next several days off.
Sept
17: Opening Read
Signal
weight +126, the Change -111 and Slope +330. At this level
of signal weight an early exit long/early slope change down signal
will be issued in 2.97 bars (Slope/Change=# of bars).
Sept
16: Closing Read, Trading Model Achieves Profit Target
Extremely
positive signal weight developed in the late morning closing at
+2553, the Change +14 and the Primary back above 10000. The
trading model achieved its target of 106.73 during the noon bar.
The model is now flat. With the Change at +14 and signal
weight +2553, we know that any moderation in weight will force the
Change strongly negative and begin the next slope change.
Sept
16: 10am
Signal
weight +1080, the Change -4. Unless signal weight turns strongly
negative, the up cycle should last at least another day.
This
is the last posting of the day as I have appointments beginning
in just a few minutes. I'll recap the day around 3pm pacific
time.
Sept
16: Opening Read
Signal
weight opening strongly positive at +1150, the Change+3. Using
X yesterday at the signal created a position at 49.16. X opened
above 50 and hit 50.36 within the first minute of trading achieving
it's 2% target mentioned yesterday. The trading model is long
SPY at 105.73 with a gtc exit at 106.73.
Sept
15: Closing Read
The
Primary turned back up today, issuing a long signal at 3pm, the
trading model long at 105.73 with a gtc exit at 106.73. As
users know, lately I've been using X to trade as a substitute for
SPY. It's good for 2% per cycle, maybe more depending on your
exit strategy. But played "by the book" at 2% it
makes twice the yield with the same level of volatility (hence the
risk adjusted rate of return is higher). Don't confuse beta
with volatility, they're not the same.
Some
comments on GE in the advanced section.
Sept
15: 3pm Enter Long Signal Confirmed at SPY 105.73
The
enter long signal has confirmed at 105.73. The trading model
is long at 105.73 with a GTC exit at 106.73. Users may wish
to consider using X as a substitute and trade for 2% or until the
next slope change down. Signal weight is very strong at +1461.
Sept
15: 2:30pm Early Enter Long Signal Issued
The
early enter long signal has been issued that will confirm at 3pm
if signal weight exceeds +865. Signal weight is very strongly
positive at +1515, the Change +33.
Sept
15: 2pm Slope Change UP confirmed
As expected,
the slope change up has confirmed. An early enter long signal
will be issued this bar if signal weight exceeds +1550, otherwise
next bar. Signal weight is strongly positive at +1515, the
Change +40.
Sept
15: 1:30pm Early Slope Change Up Signal
An early
slope change up signal has been issued that will confirm at 2pm
if signal weight exceeds +740. For an early enter long signal
to be issued, the Slope needs to be +80 or more. With the
Slope now at +33 and the Change +40, we're probably 1 hour away
from the early enter signal.
Sept
15: 1pm
Signal
weight has turned strongly positive at +1111, the Change +32, Slope
-20. We know that an early slope change up will be triggered
and confirm this bar if signal weight is greater than +1520, otherwise
it will happen next bar at the current level of weight.
Sept
15: 12pm
Signal
weight +732, Change +23, Slope -90. Still a waiting game.
Sept
15: 11am
Signal
weight +560, the Change +15, Slope -125. At this rate, an
early slope change up signal will be issued in 8 bars (4 hours).
The trading model is neutral and there's nothing to do but
wait. Good day to do something else.
Sept
15: Qcharts update
I have
been told that qcharts will update the server history data for the
lost periods tonight.
Sept
15: 10am
Signal
weight weakly positive at +243, the Change now zero. We're
a long way away from a slope change at this level of signal weight.
Sept
15: Opening Read
Modestly
positive signal weight of +525 has the Change +13. Signal
weight will need to turn strongly positive to get a slope change
up and new long signal today.
Sept
14: Closing Read
Signal
weight reversed from moderately negative to strongly positive during
the last couple of hours. Signal weight closed at +1175, the
Change +52 and Slope -148. If signal weight opens again strongly
positive, we can expect a slope change up and new long signal tomorrow
within a few hours, otherwise a continuation of the down cycle on
the Primary.
Sept
14: 2:50pm
The
Qcharts servers seem to be back up now but they're missing the history
from this morning. They may or may not replace it but I hope
that they will and will be deluging them with email until they do.
Signal
weight is +787, the Change +43.
Sept
14: 11:45am
Here's
what it looks like at the moment. This image is from the new
software whose signal weights are somewhat different, actually more
accurate than qcharts. I won't give the numbers because I
don't want to confuse you all. But the picture alone should
tell you enough of what's going on today...nothing, no signals possible
today with current conditions. You can see the Change is slightly
positive as the slope on the orange line is up, but the Primary
continues lower.
Still
no estimate from qcharts on when they'll be back up.
Sept
14: Opening Read
THIS
FROM QCHARTS: 9/14/2009
- NYSE data on Continuum - Engineering is currently investigating the
problems in displaying data on many NYSE symbols from the continuum
data feed (which affects older versions of QCharts such as 5.x).
UPDATE
ON SERVERS: Qcharts is working on the problem and told me
it should be fixed shortly. While it may appear that the signal
weight is updating, it isn't accurate.
Qcharts
is having problems with their data servers. No time estimate on
a repair but it should be within an hour or so.
Sept
11: Closing Read
The
Primary issued an early exit long that confirmed at 12pm at SPY
104.83. The trading model earned 30 cents and is now neutral.
Next week we should see the continuation of the down cycle
that began today.
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