Closing Read Sept 25, 2009

Primary Trend=DOWN

Age of Current cycle=1 day

PM Update Sept 25:  The Secondary gained 37 ticks to -167.  The Secondary cannot turn back up for at least 2 days.

AM Update Sept 25:  The Secondary is gaining 50 ticks to -181.  To turn up, positive signal weight of +2760 is needed today.

PM Update Sept 24:  Very strongly negative signal weight of -2000 or more most of the day turned the Secondary down and a new down cycle has been identified.  We'll see in the morning if the Secondary can flip back up.

AM Update Sept 24:  The Secondary is flat.  To turn down, signal weight will need to be +460 or less.  At 10am, the Secondary has now turned down.

PM Update Sept 23:  The Secondary nearly turned back down today, losing 95 ticks to +3.8.  With any negative signal weight tomorrow, the Secondary will most likely turn down.

AM Update Sept 23:  Signal weight flat this morning, the Secondary losing 37 ticks to +61.  Negative signal weight of -1170 turns the Secondary down today.

PM Update Sept 22:  The Secondary gained 56 ticks to +99.

AM Update Sept 22:  At the open, the Secondary is gaining 26 ticks to +69.  Negative signal weight of -220 will turn it down today.

PM Update Sept 21:  The Secondary lost 117 ticks to +43.  Less negative signal weight than we had today will turn the Secondary over tomorrow.

AM Update Sept 21:  At the open, the Secondary is losing 131 ticks to +29.  To turn down today, negative weight of -2240 is needed.

Sept 25:  Closing Read  Profit Target Achieved

The trading model achieved its profit target for the current short signal of 104.33 during the 12:30pm bar.  While we had a positive change all day, as users saw, there was very little chance of an actual slope change due to the weak signal weight all day.  Time is always on the side of trades made in the direction of the Delineator.

Next week I will be away until Thursday.  Depending on if I can get access to the net, I may post commentaries in the evening.

Something has come up and I have to leave for at least several hours.

Sept 25:  10:30am

Signal weight now weakly positive at +46, the Change +87.  At this level of signal weight, an early exit short signal is possible in 2 hours (4 bars).

Sept 25:  10am

Signal weight now only modestly negative at -566, the Slope -473 and Change +65.  At this level of signal weight, an early exit short signal may be possible in 7 bars, but that's a long way away and as long as signal weight is negative we can expect price to continue to test the lows.

Sept 25:  Opening Read

Signal weight is moderately negative at -923, the Change +62.  The trading model is short SPY at 105.33 with a gtc exit at 104.33.  

Sept 24:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed at -2150, the Change -3.  In the morning, we'll need to see strongly negative signal weight or else the Primary will begin to change slope again.  Given the strong Slope at -634, even with a strong positive Change it will be many hours before any slope change can actually be in the cards.  The trading model is still short per previous postings.

If you look at the Secondary, you can see the obvious downside target of 104+-, the level of the last set of highs including the single chevron down on 8/28.

 Sept 24:  2:40pm

Signal weight -2306, the Change -20.  SPY has traded to 104.55 but still above the price target.

Sept 24:  12pm

Signal weight is extremely negative at -2131, the Change -57.  The trading model is short SPY at 105.33 with a gtc exit at 104.33.

UPDATE 12:37pm:  I'm off to the gym. Next post at 2:30pm.

Sept 24:  10:30am  Enter Short Confirmed at SPY 105.33

The enter short signal has confirmed at 105.32.  The trading model is short SPY at 105.33 with a gtc exit at 104.33.  Signal weight is strongly negative at -1812, the Change -81.

Sept 24:  10am   EARLY ENTER SHORT SIGNAL ISSUED

An early enter short signal has been issued that will confirm at 10:30am if signal weight is -350 or more.

Sept 24:  9:45am

This is a bit tricky right now...the Secondary will flip down if signal weight is less than +460.  The Primary can flip back up if signal weight turns more strongly positive.  We can see multiple signals today:  if signal weight is negative, a short signal is possible, if signal weight is strongly positive, another long signal is possible.  The Secondary can flip up or down as can the Primary.  It happens sometimes.

Sept 24:  9:40am  Exit Long Confirmed at 106.50

Signal weight opened positive and for a few minutes, the Change was greater than the Slope hence the Primary would have ended still up at the end of the bar.  But once signal weight turned less positive, the Change went under the Slope value and we must now assume that the signal is confirmed.  The trading model is out at 106.50

Sept 24:  Pre-Opening

The program issued an early exit signal at 1:30pm yesterday that has not yet confirmed.  Based upon the close, the signal will confirm at the open. HOWEVER, a signal cannot confirm either on the open or close.  We need to wait at least 5-7 minutes for the signal weight to reach its actual level to see if the signal has confirmed or not.  If you look at your stats window before the open, it shows that zero signal weight equals -2.06 for the Slope value.  Hence, if signal weight opens positive, then the signal will not confirm. Any signal issued exactly at the open needs to be ignored.  We need to wait until enough issues open to see what actual signal weight is.

Sept 23:  Closing Read

An early exit long signal was issued at 2pm which never confirmed.  The early exit came prior to the move to the highs which just got past 108.  As I mentioned in a previous posting, the "off the chart resistance" may have been too much for the current upcycle to penetrate given the fact that we had weak signal weight all morning.  Whatever the case, the exit long signal will most likely confirm tomorrow morning.

Sept 23:  10:15am

Signal weight modestly negative at -422, the Change -81, Slope +270.  At this level of signal weight, an early exit long signal will be issued in 3.3 bars.

This is the last post of the day as I have obligations that will take me away from the screens (sorry).

Sept 23:  Opening Read

Signal weight flat at the opening, the Change -80.  

Sept 22:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed at +1760, the Change +20.  The trading model is long SPY at 107.29 with a gtc exit at 108.29.

Sept 22:  2pm

Signal weight +1778, the Change +44.  One point of note, 108 represents the highest retracement since the low in mid March.  When I used to draw my charts on graph paper, there was something called "off the chart resistance".  It meant that price met the top or bottom of a piece of paper...no autoscaling graphics back then.  So sometimes you had to tape a piece of paper under another to accommodate the price and maintain the graphic.  This happened dramatically in 1987.  The point being that there's no more easily viewable price targets, like a staircase into the darkness.

Next post after the close.

Sept 22:  1pm

The enter long confirmed at 12:30pm at 107.29.  The trading model is long SPY at 107.29 with a gtc exit at 108.29.  Signal weight is very strong at +1860, the Change +67.  X was 49.95 at the time of the signal for those using X

Sept 22:  12:30pm  Enter Long Confirmed at 107.29

Sept 22:  12pm  Slope Change Confirms, Early Enter Long Signal Issued

Signal weight holding strongly positive, the slope change confirming and the early enter signal issued.  The enter long will confirm at 12:30pm if signal weight is greater than +870.

NOTE:  I have to run out for about an hour.  I fully expect the enter long signal to confirm at 12:30pm.

Sept 22:  11:30am  Early Slope Change Up signal issued

As expected, the early slope change signal has triggered that will confirm at 12pm if signal weight exceeds +780.  We can expect a dual signal next bar--slope change and early enter long--so expect your program to lock up.  This has been fixed on the new program.

Sept 22:  11am

We can expect an early slope change signal next bar as you can see from the numbers.

Sept 22:  10:30am

Strong positive weight continues.  An early slope change up signal now expected in 1.4 bars

Sept 22:  10am

An early slope change signal now expected in 2 bars at the current level of signal weight.

Sept 22:  Opening Read

Strong positive signal weight of +1233, the Change +142, Slope -406.  An early slope change up signal is now possible in 2.8 bars at the current level of signal weight.

Sept 21:  Closing Read

Signal weight -1367, the Change +11.  We can expect a slope change up and new long signal tomorrow if signal weight opens strongly positive, otherwise another day like today leading to a slope change late in the day or on Wednesday.

Sept 21:  2:30pm

Signal weight remains -1570, the Change -0.95, the Primary +821.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change sharply positive starting the next slope change up and potential new long signal tomorrow.

Sept 21:  12:30pm

No great change from the prior posting.  A few more hours at this level of signal weight and the value of the Primary will cross zero and the Change should approach zero as well.  I'm off to the gym...back around 2:30pm.

Sept 21:  11:45am

Signal weight moderating somewhat at -1467.  The new program should be ready to distribute to users around October 1st.  The Qcharts servers aren't scheduled to be shut down until Oct. 26th so we wanted to be sure to have almost a full month to workout any issues that may present themselves during this period.  If users have recommendations for new features, please email those to me asap.

Sept 21:  10am

Very strongly negative signal weight continues at -2008 the Change -95.  At -2240 signal weight the Secondary turns over.  I'll be away for the next hour or so as I have an early meeting with my software developer for the new program.

Sept 21:  Opening Read

Strongly negative signal weight of -1717, the Change -99.  The down cycle continues.  To turn the Secondary down today, negative signal weight of -2240 is needed to generate a middle short signal.

Sept 18:  Closing Read

Signal weight spent most of the day modestly positive closing at +650, the Change +22.  Thus far, this down cycle is mirroring the previous one in that signal weight continues to stay positive, or at least not very negative.  Signal weight will need to turn strongly positive to get a slope change up and new long signal on Monday.

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