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Oct
2: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at -1473, the Change +10. The Primary is now
at -11,240 and reaching overextended levels. As with today,
on Monday strongly negative signal weight will be needed to maintain
the Primary in a negative slope. Any moderation in signal
weight will result in a quickly moving slope change back up.
Oct
2: 1pm
Signal
weight -1232, the Change +46. We've now got a single chevron
up at the lows of the day and with the positive Change and the Primary
now at -10,110 we could see somewhat of a move higher to the 103.40+-
area (single chevron up from yesterday). But from the trading
model discipline point of view, there's nothing to do until the
next confirmed signal.
1:20pm:
I've got a Dr's. Appt. back near the close.
Oct
2: 11:38am
Signal
weight moderated somewhat but is now back strongly negative at -1703,
the Change +32. The opening gap has been filled and as soon
as it was, signal weight turned back more strongly negative. Any
early slope change signal is still many hours away and the value
of the Primary is still not yet overextended.
Oct
2: 10:30am
Signal
weight starting to moderate, now at -1430, the Change +51. Price
is attempting to fill the opening gap and we're seeing some buy
spikes on the GE and X accumulators, but not significant. With
the Slope -534, a slope change is still more than 4 hours away at
the current level of signal weight. The Primary is not yet
overextended.
Oct
2: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened extremely negative at -2141, the Change +19, the
value of the Primary now -6733 and declining by 644 ticks per bar.
Unless signal weight turns positive later today or moderates
substantially, we'll most likely see a slope change begin to develop
late in the day or most likely on Monday.
Oct
1: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed extremely negative at -2620, the Change -9. Tomorrow,
unless signal weight get more negative, the Change will rise quickly
and we can expect a slope change mid to late day tomorrow, else
probably Monday. Since the Secondary is strongly down and
cannot turn back up, no long signal will be issued.
Oct
1: 1:30pm
Signal
weight continues extremely negative at -2470, the Change -31, price
making new lows.
I posted
previously in the Advanced section on trading reversals and
the various steps in sequence to identify them. Frequently,
the more emotional the media is, the better the potential for setups.
They don't happen often. A helpful data point to watch
is VIX. People pay up for downside protection, hence the expansion
in premiums in sharply declining markets. If we begin to see
some really elevated levels in VIX, correlating to that point in
the Primary's down cycle when the Change remains near zero even
with -2000 signal weight, that's when we can expect to position
for a sharp reversal and make a few points on SPY.
Oct
1: 12:30pm
Signal
weight continues extremely negative at -2344, the Change -32. The
Change should reach near zero by late in the day today if signal
weight remains near the current levels. Then any moderation
in signal weight will turn the Change strongly positive and begin
the process of the next slope change up possibly tomorrow or Monday.
As the Secondary is firmly down, the next up cycle on the
Primary will remain unconfirmed by the Secondary and hence no long
signal is expected.
Next
week I will begin to send the new program to users as we're in the
final phase of testing. Please keep your qcharts datafeed
subscription active until we're fully integrated into the new program.
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to send me an email
or call.
Oct
1: 11:15am Profit Target of 103.80 achieved
The
trading model has achieved its profit target at 103.80 shortly before
this posting. Signal weight remains strongly negative at -2215,
the Change -56.
Oct
1: 10am
The
short signal that was issued on Sept.30th at 104.80 is still in
effect, the trading model short at that price with a gtc exit at
103.80. Signal weight is strongly negative at -1844, the Change
-58 and the value of the Primary is near zero at +98.
Oct
1: Review of the last 3 days
The
Primary changed slope up on September 28th but did not issue a long
signal as the Secondary continued lower as signal weight was never
positive enough to turn the Secondary back up to confirm a long
signal. On September 30th, the Primary not only changed slope
down during the first bar of the day but issued a short signal as
well at 104.80.
What
is important to recognize during these last few days is how important
signal weight is, not price. While I am sure that the big
up day on the 28th was considered "important" by the financial
media, users recognized that the Secondary was very much in a down
cycle and that the next most likely signal would be a short,
not long, signal which was issued on the 30th and is still active
as of this posting.
Sept
25: Closing Read Profit Target Achieved
The
trading model achieved its profit target for the current short signal
of 104.33 during the 12:30pm bar. While we had a positive
change all day, as users saw, there was very little chance of an
actual slope change due to the weak signal weight all day. Time
is always on the side of trades made in the direction of the Delineator.
Next
week I will be away until Thursday. Depending on if I can
get access to the net, I may post commentaries in the evening.
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