Closing Read Oct 9, 2009

Primary Trend=Transitioning

Age of Current cycle=1 day

PM Update Oct 9:  The Secondary gained 9 ticks to +42 and is still in a transitioning mode until the Slope value exceeds +-80.  It will be possible again for the Secondary to flip down on Monday with only moderately negative signal weight.

AM Update Oct 9:  The Secondary is losing 53 ticks to -20 and has flipped back down again.  Signal weight at -160 flips the Secondary.

PM Update Oct 8:  The Secondary gained 81 ticks to close at +33 but not yet in an up cycle which needs +80 to confirm.  It will be possible for the Secondary to flip back down tomorrow with strong negative signal weight.

AM Update Oct 8:  Positive signal weight of +1220 turns the Secondary up today.  At the open, signal weight is +1367 and the Secondary is now up.  To confirm a new up cycle, the Slope on the Secondary will need to be greater than +80.

PM Update Oct 7:  The Secondary was flat today.  It will be possible for the Secondary to flip up tomorrow with moderately positive signal weight.

AM Update Oct 7:  The Secondary is gaining 29 ticks to -77 at the open.  To flip up, positive signal weight of +1240 is required.

PM Update Oct 6:  The Secondary lost 116 ticks to -48.  The Secondary will be able to turn up tomorrow if signal weight is only moderately positive.  

AM Update Oct 6:  To reverse and turn up today, signal weight of +3240 is required.  At the open, the Secondary has lost 76 ticks to -88.

PM Update Oct 5:  The Secondary lost 151 ticks to -164, still firmly in its down cycle.

AM Update Oct 5:  The Secondary is losing 54 ticks to -261 at the open.  The Secondary cannot turn up without several days of very strongly positive signal weight. 

Oct 9:  Closing Read

The exit long signal came at the 12:30pm bar at 106.68.  The trading model took a .34 cent loss on the signal.

Oct 9:  10:50am

Signal weight eroding, sitting at +247, you see the numbers below.  We'll probably get an early exit long during the noon bar.

This is the last posting until later this afternoon, still working on the new program which should be ready on Tuesday.

Oct 9:  10:30am

Signal weight continues to get more positive, although slowly, and is now +572, the Change -51 and Slope +141.  An early exit long signal is still several bars away.

Oct 9:  10am

Signal weight has turned weakly positive at +305, the Change -73 and Slope +186 and the signal is once again in confirmation as the Secondary has flipped back up again.  Unless signal weight turns more strongly positive, the up cycle on the Primary will end later this morning.

Oct 9:  Opening Read

Signal weight is modestly negative at the open at -567, the Change -128 and Slope 217.  If signal weight remains where it is, an early exit long signal will be issued in 1.7 bars.  The Secondary has come out of confirmation of the current signal as signal weight needs only to be -180 to turn the Secondary back down.  The trading model is long SPY at 107.02 with a gtc exit at 108.02

Oct 8:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed strong positive at +1876, the Change -4.75 and the value of the Primary back nearly to +10000 at +9873.  The trading model is long SPY at 107.02 with a gtc exit at 108.82.  We can see that we'll need strong positive signal weight tomorrow to maintain the current up cycle on the Primary.

Oct 8:  12pm  Enter Long Signal Confirmed at SPY 107.02

The enter long signal has confirmed at 12pm.  The trading model is long SPY at 107.02 with a gtc exit at 108.02.  As long as signal weight remains very strongly positive and the Change above +25, any retracement in price back to 106.56+- during the next hour is an opportunity to establish a secondary trade back to the current signal price level.

12:30pm:  I'm off to the gym, back after the close.

Oct 8:  11:30am  Exit Short Confirmed at SPY 106.94, Early Enter Long Signal issued

As expected, the exit short confirmed at 11:30am at SPY 106.94.  The signal lost 1.43 points.  An enter long signal has also been issued that will confirm at 12pm if signal weight is greater than +1200.  (the double signal crash problem has been fixed on the new program)

Oct 8:  11am  Early Exit Short Signal Issued

The Early Exit Short signal has issued and will confirm at the end of the current bar at 11:30 am if signal weight is greater than +800.  We can also expect a double signal at 11:30--exit short, early enter long because the Slope will be greater than +80 (63+68=131) at the beginning of the next bar with current signal weight.

Oct 8:  10:30am

Signal weight +1940, the Change +72, Slope -10.  If signal weight exceeds +2160 this bar, an early exit short signal will issue, otherwise we can expect it next bar.

Oct 8:  10am

With signal weight at +1699, the short signal is out of confirmation but still valid.  Until first an early exit, then an exit signal is issued, the trading model is still short and will not exit until an exit short signal is actually issued.  The numbers below show that an early exit short signal is now expected in 1.6 bars.

Oct 8:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1583, the Change +78, Slope -173.  The Secondary has also turned back up today as signal weight needs to be greater than +1220.  The trading model is short SPY at 105.51 from yesterday with a GTC exit at 104.51.  Given the current level of signal weight, an early exit short signal is possible in 2 bars.  It will be possible to get both an exit short and an enter long signal today.

Oct 7:  Closing Read

The Slope change down confirmed at 1pm and an enter short signal followed at 1:30pm at 105.51.  The trading model is short SPY at 105.51 with a GTC exit at 104.51.

Signal weight was only modestly negative most of the day and ended at +261, the Change +12.

Oct 7:  10am

Signal weight has turned modestly negative at -694, the Change -150.  We can expect an early slope change down in 2.5 bars at the current level of signal weight.  We can also expect a short signal today if signal weight continues negative and a slope change occurs.

This is the last posting until after the close as I have continued appointments today.

Oct 7:  Opening Read

Signal weight is essentially flat just after the open, the Change -131, Slope +568.  At this level of signal weight an early slope change down signal is possible in 4 bars.  If signal weight is +1240, the Secondary will turn back up and a middle long signal will immediately be issued.

Oct 6:  Closing Read

Signal weight moderated slightly mid day but remained very strongly positive, closing at +2252, the Change now -25.  We know that it may be possible for the Secondary to flip up tomorrow which would generate a middle long signal.  But even if signal weight is +2000, the Change will remain negative and any further rises in price will be unsustainable during the current up cycle on the Primary.

Of course from the trading model's point of view, a signal is a signal and if a middle signal is issued the model will be long.

Oct 6:  2pm

Signal weight has moderated somewhat but is still very strongly positive at +2138, the Change -38.  

Oct 6:  12pm

Signal weight +2713, the Change now negative at -3.35.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly negative and begin the process of the next slope change down.

Oct 6:  10:30am

Signal weight remains strongly positive at +2440, the Change -0.36.  With the Slope value at +917, we can expect to see the value of the Primary rise above zero very shortly.  

Oct 6:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened again strongly positive at +1544, the Change -34.  It's very unlikely that signal weight will turn strongly positive enough to turn up the Secondary and generate a middle long signal as +3240 is required.  With the Slope at +874, we can expect at least another day in the current unconfirmed up cycle.  The trading model is neutral (gray color of the Primary).

Oct 5:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed extremely positive at +2561, the Change +23.  Any moderation in signal weight tomorrow will turn the Change sharply negative but will not result in a slope change down very quickly as the value of the Slope is quite high at +905.  If signal weight is strongly negative, it will take many hours to turn the Primary back down, if at all tomorrow.  Given that the Secondary cannot turn up for at least another day if very strong signal weight continues, the next most likely signal is another short signal on Wednesday.

Oct 5:  2:45pm

Signal weight continues very strongly positive at +2410, the Change +37.  The value of the Primary has now risen to -5753 from -11k at the open.  Notice how quickly the Slope has risen to +837 today pushed by +2000 signal weight.  The faster the Slope reaches its maximum value, generally the shorter the cycle as increased levels of signal weight are needed to keep it rising.

 Oct 5:  11:45am

Signal weight +1783, the Change +88.  I've got appointments for the next few hours with the software developer for the new program.  We should be ready to roll it out late this week or early next.

Oct 5:  10:30am  Exit Short/Slope Change Up signal confirmed at 103.22

As expected, the exit signal has confirmed.  The trading model is neutral as the slope of the Secondary is negative.  The current up cycle on the Primary should last at least two days.

Oct 5:  10am  Early Exit Short/Early Slope Change Up signal issued

The early exit short signal has been issued and it will confirm at 10:30am as signal weight has expanded more strongly positive at +1792, the Change +148 and the Slope +130.

Oct 5:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened modestly positive at +691, the Change +118 and Slope -87.  Obviously, an early exit short/early slope change up signal will be issued next bar at the current level of signal weight.  As the Secondary is firmly down and cannot change slope up today, no long signal will be issued when the slope change confirms.

Oct 2:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed at -1473, the Change +10.  The Primary is now at -11,240 and reaching overextended levels.  As with today, on Monday strongly negative signal weight will be needed to maintain the Primary in a negative slope.  Any moderation in signal weight will result in a quickly moving slope change back up.

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