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Oct
23: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at -1609, the Change -18. The trading model
has not yet achieved its target as 107.63 was the low for the day.
Monday signal weight will need to open as strongly negative
as it is at the close or the Change will reverse and the process
of the next slope change will begin anew.
Still
a challenging trading environment but notice how the highs of the
week have not been sustained while the Secondary has been showing
divergences and has never begun to trend except in the down cycle
direction. I expect more of this to continue for the next
several weeks as the down cycle on the Secondary plays itself out.
Oct
23: 3pm
Signal
weight strongly negative but the Change now only -17. Price
testing the lows of the day following the signal. The trading
model is short at 108.27 with a gtc limit at 107.27. There
were several opportunities to add to the position above 108.50.
Oct
23: 12:30pm
Price
has traded back to the 108.50+ for a secondary level with signal
weight remaining strongly negative at -1390 (-1800 old (+30%)),
the Change -45.
Oct
23: 11:30am Enter Short Confirmed at SPY 108.27.
The
trading model is short SPY at 108.27 with a gtc cover at 107.27.
Any move higher in price this bar on strong negative signal
weight will create a secondary opportunity--108.65-108.95. Slope on the Secondary
is -138 at the time of the signal.
Oct
23: 11amSlope Change Down Signal confirms, Early Enter Short Signal
issued
The
signal has confirmed, the enter short will confirm this bar if signal
weight closes at -1278 or more, otherwise next bar for sure. Any
move back to 109+ this bar will increase the range to 107.50.
Software
suggestion: At this posting, signal weight is -811. I've
set up my SW limits with upside at -450, and downside at -920 and
I'm on the ground doing pushups.
10:48:
downside limit alarm, sw now at -1000. 107.50 is the
most likely downside target for this signal, range from here is
-1.33 points.
Oct
23: 10:35am Early Slope Change Down signal issued
Your
stats window tells you a slope change down will confirm this bar
if signal weight is greater than -920. Check the Slope value
of the Secondary...greater than -80? Yup...let's check for target
levels. Expand your numbars to 140 and you can quickly identify
the double chevrons up and their associated levels. These
are out targets. Shown below, the first double up is 107.50+-
which is also the gap level from 10/14. You can see what's
below that.
Oct
23: 10:30am
A brief
uptick in signal weight dissolved rather quickly and negative signal
weight is building. We can expect a slope change down shortly
and a short signal probably within 1 hour unless signal weight again
reverses.
Oct
23: Opening Read
Signal
weight flat, the trading model neutral.
Oct
22: Closing Read
Signal
weight was all over the map today, ranging from -1000 to +1019 at
the close. Two slope changes today and more of the same narrow
range price hack in SPY. Consider the fact that SPY traded
to 107.50 on Sept. 17th and it traded there today as well. The
typical range in price over the past two weeks has been less than
2 points...narrow narrow narrow. Why? Because there's
no trend in signal weight, hence there's no trend to trade.
The
Delineator is telling us it's not the right time to trade. You've
seen how small the Change number has been following a slope change
on the Primary...no legs obviously. And, the divergence in
the Secondary from the price action is telling us this as well--no
confirmation. I developed the Delineator as a tool to
help me trade large portfolio of issues. Knowing when to sell
into strength and buy into weakness is key from a portfolio management
point of view.
But
as traders, until the Secondary begins to trend, the narrow
range will continue and trading will be difficult as you'll need
razor precision to be successful. Better simply to recognize
what's going on here, and wait until normal conditions return which
they always do.
If you
haven't done so already, don't forget
to update your software.
Oct
22: 2:20pm Early Slope Change Up signal issued
Signal
weight has turned modestly positive at +641 (+833 old) and an early
slope change up has been issued that will confirm at 2:30pm if signal
weight exceeds +320. No long signal is expected today per
my previous comments earlier today.
Oct
22: 12:30
Signal
weight still only weakly negative at -220, the Change -9. Not
much going on, can go either way today signal weight depending.
With the Secondary down and trending, the surprise should
be to the downside. I'm off to the gym until 2:30pm.
Oct
22: 11:30am Slope Change Down Confirmed
Signal
weight has moderated substantially, now weakly negative at -205,
the Change -12. We can see that a slope change back up is
possible today if signal weight turns positive. Given the
amount of positive signal weight needed to turn the Secondary up,
a long signal is very unlikely today.
New
Update Software available HERE.
Follow instructions on the page.
Oct
22: 11:15am
The
upgrade is now available. I've sent an email to each user
with instructions on how to get the files. If you haven't
received the email, follow this link
and be sure to let me know that you've successfully installed the
upgrade.
Oct
22: 11am
Signal
weight was not sufficient to confirm the slope change down. It
will confirm if signal weight is greater than -40 this bar.
Oct
22: 10:30am Early Slope Change Down signal issued
Signal
weight varied substantially during the last bar, closing at -605
and an early slope change down signal has been issued that will
confirm if signal weight is -420 or more. Since the Change
number is already very low, a short signal if it comes may come
when the Change is near zero adding more uncertainty to the signal
if it's issued.
Oct
22: 10am
Signal
weight has turned more strongly negative at -1063, the Change -68,
Slope +9. An early slope change down signal will issue this
bar if signal weight exceeds -1260, otherwise next bar.
Oct
22: Opening Read
Signal
weight has flipped around and is essentially flat at +44, the Change
-35. If we get a slope change down today, a short signal will
issue. The Primary is currently neutral.
A new
version of the software will be ready for users shortly.
Oct
21: Closing Read
Note:
my Internet was down during the time the early exit/exit short
signal was issued, so the email did not go out.
An exit
short signal was confirmed at 11:30am at 110.02. Once again a less
than +-80 slope on the Secondary resulted in a poor signal on the
Primary. Skill in trading or avoiding the signal...which is
better?
Anyway,
we can obviously see that exogenous events were responsible today for
the reversal in signal weight and strong price move during the last
hour. The Secondary did not get close to turning up today
and has now closed at -105 identifying a new down cycle. The
negative divergence seen in the Secondary from early October identifies
that SPY should retrace the entire range from the point where the
divergence began, SPY +-104. If a more "normal"
down cycle is established on the Secondary, then all the double
chevrons up since July can expect to be tested.
SOFTWARE:
Two new features have been added to the program that will
be available shortly. The first feature is a new data field
called TTXSlope--time to slope change in bars. The second
feature (hat tip Jeff) is a signal weight audible alarm that you
can set to identify upside or downside changes in signal weight.
It should be ready in the morning.
Oct
21: 10am
Signal
weight +1200 (1560 on old program), the Change +95, Slope -91. An
early exit short likely next bar. I have appointments all
day today so this is the last post until around 3pm pst.
Please
continue to report any problems with the new software.
Oct
21: Opening Read
Signal
weight opens +247, the Change +68, Slope -219. An early exit
short signal is likely in 3 bars at the current level. To
get another long signal today, signal weight will need to get to
+1320 and then the value of the Slope on the Secondary will still
be below +80...more of the same pattern, beware. (notice how
the price spike from late yesterday has been filtered)
Oct
20: Closing Read
First
off, the price bars today at 15-15:30 show a bad print affecting the
price range. Bad prints occur from time to time and do not
affect the computation of the Delineator because price isn't
part of it as you know. Eventually, bad prints are filtered
out by the feed. The old feed has these as well.
Signal
weight closed -1022, the Change -7. The same 8 day old pattern
continues and we should expect another slope change up tomorrow
with the potential of a long signal as well. Eventually this
will break and normal trends will prevail, it always does.
Oct
20: 2:30pm
Signal
weight moderating somewhat to -1103, the Change now only -19. The
lows from the morning are holding while the Change continues to
decline. Starting to look like the same pattern as we've seen.
Oct
20: 1pm Enter Short Signal Confirmed at SPY 108.91
The
enter short has confirmed at 108.91, the trading model is short
at that level with a gtc exit at 107.91. The Change is a bit
low here at -49 for a secondary trade to be identified if price
moves back to the 109.30+- area during the next bar.
Oct
20: 12:30pm Exit Long Confirmed at 108.93, Early Enter
Short signal issued
The
exit long confirmed and the signal failed as expected. An
early enter short signal has also issued that will confirm at 1pm.
The Slope value on the Secondary is -76 so close enough for
me to consider this signal as workable.
Oct
20: 12:15pm Early Exit Long signal issued
The
early exit signal has been issued and confirm at the conclusion
of this bar. An early enter short is also expected at the
same time.
Oct
20: 11:30am
Signal
weight -896, the Slope +24, Change -61. An early exit long
signal will obviously be issued next bar or this bar if signal weight
exceeds -1380.
PROGRAM
NOTE: If you would like to change the time frame of the
Delineator from 30m (default) to any other time frame, you must
do this in a specific order otherwise the program may not function
properly. If you want to change time frames, 1)turn off the
software, 2)turn it back on and before logging in, change the time
frame to the desired setting 3)log in (F1) 4)enter your symbol.
To change back to 30m, turn off the software then turn it
back on and it will revert to 30m.
Oct
20: 10:20
Signal
weight more strongly negative, the timing of the next set of signals
has accelerated. I have a short meeting away.
Oct
20: 10am
Signal
weight -687, the Change -83, Slope +247. It's likely we'll
get an exit short later this morning and possibly a short signal
as well. As the Secondary is still not trending, one would
have to continue to be suspect of another trading model signal.
Oct
20: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened moderately negative at -551 (-716 on the old software),
the Change -93. The Secondary has flipped back down and the
current long signal is out of confirmation. An early exit
long signal can be triggered in 3.6 bars at the current level of
signal weight.
Oct
19: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed +1388, the Change +11...this signal's going pretty
much the same as the last set over the past 7 days. It's something
of a contradiction in observation to see price from 10/07 clearly
trending higher (higher highs, higher lows) yet see the Secondary
in a non-trending mode and signals on the Primary fail.
Sequential exogenous
events can have this impact, as can buying or selling panics. While
I wouldn't necessarily call what's going on a panic, I will point
out the large number of gap up openings since early October--nearly
every day. I haven't been mentioning divergence on the Secondary
for quite awhile because it really isn't relevant to trading for
us to attempt to visualize the future past more than about 3-5 days.
But if you go back on the Secondary a year or more and examine
similar periods, you'll see that there's typically a second chance
to trade through the previous range.
From
the perspective of the trading model, we're not trying to predict
each move, just those that conform to the model.
Also,
please let me know if you are experiencing any problems with the
new software. One user saw the time period change on the Primary
which was resolved by restarting the program. I need to know
about these types of events asap please.
Oct
19: 2:45pm
Signal
weight still very strongly positive at +1547, the Change +29. Nothing
more of any real importance to add.
Oct
19: 12pm Enter Long Confirmed at SPY 109.97
The
enter long signal has confirmed at 109.97, the trading model is
long at that price with a gtc exit at 110.97. Any retracement
during the next hour to the 109.40 level would create an opportunity
to enter a secondary trade back to the signal price 109.97+-. Given
the fact that the Secondary is still less than +80, users need to
be especially careful.
Signal
weight of +1626 is equalled to approximately 2111 on the old program
(1626+30%). The old program gave the exit short a half hour
later at 109.97, and enter long at the same time.
12:35pm
update: I'm off to the gym, back around 2pm.
Oct
19: 11:30 Early Exit Short Signal Confirmed, Early Enter
Long Signal issued
The
exit short confirmed at 109.83 for a loss of -0.97 based upon the
old program. An early enter long signal has also issued that
will confirm at 12pm if signal weight exceeds +1220. If signal
weight is below this amount, the early enter signal will still be
active and will confirm at the conclusion of any subsequent bar
if signal weight is +1220. Signal weight is very strongly
positive at +1506 and the Change also very strong at +88.
Notice
also that the double signal did not crash the new program!
Oct
19: 11:17am Early Exit Short Signal Issued
Signal
weight moved above +1220 and an early exit short signal has been
issued that will confirm at the end of the current bar unless signal
weight is below +1220; otherwise it will confirm at 12pm.
There is also the possibility of an enter long signal as well
if signal weight remains above +1220 which is coincidentally the
same amount of weight needed to turn the Secondary up. As
the Secondary is still below +-80, an enter long will be as suspect
as the last several signals which have failed due to the non-trending
nature of the Secondary.
Oct
19: 11am
Signal
weight has turned more strongly positive at +1141, the Change
+84, Slope -3. An early exit short signal will be issued this
bar if signal weight exceeds +1220, otherwise it will trigger during
the 11:30am bar.
Oct
19: 10:30am
Signal
weight has turned strongly positive again at +1022, the Change +91,
Slope -92. An early exit short is now expected during the
11am bar.
Oct
19: 10am
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +59, the Change +55. An
early exit short signal is now 4 bars away at the current level
of signal weight. If you're running both programs today, you'll
notice that the enter short signal from last week came at different
times and different prices. The old program is short SPY at
108.88 which we will continue to use until an exit short is confirmed.
Oct
19: Opening Read
Signal
weight opened strongly positive at +887 (equal to 1200 SW on the
old program), the Change +107. An early exit short signal
is expected in 2.2 bars given current signal weight. Remember,
all pictures and data shown are on the new software. Please
let me know ASAP if you're having any problems at all with the new
program or data feed.
Oct
16: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at -1331, the Change now +18. The short signal
is still in effect and has not yet achieved its profit target. Signal
weight will need to open strongly negative on Monday or the Change
will turn strongly positive and begin the next slope change up.
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