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Dec
11: Closing Read
Signal
weight moderated throughout most of the day, ending at +1005 near
the close, the Change +2. As long as the Primary continues
to rise, our next targets should be a retest of the highs near 112.
Dec
11: 3pm
Signal
weight has managed to get back to +800, the Change -6. Very
quiet for a Friday and the end of the year approaches.
Dec
11: 11:30
Signal
weight has fallen below +650, now standing at +513, the Change -20.
The opening gap was filled at the close of the last bar. If
the Change had been still strongly positive, a opportunity for a
secondary trade would have presented itself. As the Primary
is still rising, we'll probably see some retest of the highs of
the day unless signal weight erodes further.
Dec
11: 11:10am
Signal
weight +907, the Change just went negative at -1.69.
Dec
11: 10:30am
Signal
weight holding in at +1078, the Change +10. Price attempted
to fill the small opening gap during the first bar before retesting
the highs of the day. Weakness tends to come midpoint during
a half hour bar with stronger levels near the close of a bar. As
always, signal weight is the key and until it begins to decline,
say below +650, price should continue to resolve to the direction
of the Primary.
Dec
11: Opening Read
Strong
positive signal weight of +1360 after the open will extend the duration
of the current up cycle.
Dec
10: Closing Read
Gaps...
Dec
10: 2:50pm
Signal
weight +725, the Change only +5. Another gap opening taking
the gas out of any additional move on SPY.
Dec
10: 12:15pm
Signal
weight holding around +900, the Change +31 and kind of low for this
early in a new up cycle. I'm off to the gym as I misssed my
Monday session. Next posting around 2:30pm.
Dec
10: 11:30am Enter Long Confirmed at SPY 110.85
Dec
10: 11am
The
long signal did not confirm at 11am, but it will at the conclusion
of this bar if signal weight is greater than +65.
Dec
10: 10:30
I've
got issues with my computer today apparently. A slope change
up has confirmed at 10:30am and an early enter long signal is expected
this bar if signal weight exceeds +960, which as I am writing it
just has.
Dec
10: 10:15am
I lost
my feed, then the program issued an early exit short/early slope
change signal. I'm not sure what happened but it appears that
we have a valid early slope change signal which will confirm if
signal weight is greater than +520. User, let me know if your
program did a similar thing.
Dec
10: 10am
Signal
weight backed off just enough not to trigger an early slope change
at the bar change. If signal weight is greater than +1220,
we'll get the signal during this bar.
Dec
10: Opening Read
Signal
weight +1542, TTXSlope=.5 so obviously at this level of signal weight
an early slope change up signal/early exit short will be issued
next bar; a long signal shortly thereafter.
Dec
9: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained negative until the last hour and then it closed
only weakly negative. I really expected to see stronger signal
weight develop when 109 held early in the day. As it stands
now, the signal's out of confirmation but still valid and we should
expect a slope change up on Thursday unless signal weight opens
strongly negative. Lately, gaps have been filled within a
few days, so with strong positive weight, we can expect a move back
to the recent highs early in the next up cycle.
Dec
9: 10:50am
Signal
weight has reversed and now sits at +322, the Change +73 and TTXSlope=5bars.
This is my last posting until after the close today as I have
appointments away.
Dec
9: 10am
SPY
tested 109 but rebounded as signal weight never dropped much below
-1000. SW now stands at -443, the Change +38 and TTXSlope=10.7
bars (5+hrs). To see a slope change up today on the Primary,
signal weight will need to turn moderately positive (>+650).
Dec
9: Opening Read
Signal
weight moderately negative just after the open at -649, the Change
+27. The trading model is short SPY at 109.73 with a gtc exit
at 108.73. A break of 109 will most likely bring more strongly
negative signal weight.
Dec
8: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed near the lows for the day, the Change -2. With
the Change now nearly zero, we'll need stronger negative signal
weight tomorrow to maintain the down cycle.
Dec
8: 1:30pm
Signal
weight has moved more strongly negative again and the signal back
in confirmation. Price didn't get to 110.53 after the last
posting. If it moved there now, most likely signal weight
would move back to -650+- and the Change would go positive making
a trade from that level later in the day not as attractive as such
a move near the initial signal.
Dec
8: 11:35am
Signal
weight has turned less negative at -952, the Change -25 and the
current short signal is out of confirmation as the Secondary is
fractionally still up. If price manages to fill or attempt
to fill today's opening gap while signal weight remains at least
moderately negative, I would then expect price to fall back to the
lows. The current down cycle should last through Wednesday
or early Thursday.
11:50am:
110.53 would represent the filling of the opening gap and
present a secondary trade opportunity back to 109.60+- as price
will resolve back to the direction of the Primary.
Dec
8: 10am Enter Short Confirmed
The
short signal has confirmed at 109.73, the trading model short at
that level with a gtc exit at 108.73. As long as signal weight
remains strongly negative, and the Change greater than -30+-, any
move by price to near the opening levels of the day can be traded
back near the lows.
Dec
8: Opening Read EARLY ENTER SHORT ISSUED
Early
Enter Short signal issued at the open which will confirm at 10am
if signal weight is greater than -1120.
Dec
7: Closing Read
Signal
weight never got more negative today than about -100 and as you
saw, several slope changes. At +7200 (+9300 old) the Primary
is fully extended but not overextended. It would take signal
weight in excess of +2000 tomorrow to reverse the Primary again,
and we should expect to see a full down cycle.
Dec
7: 2pm
Holy
Cow Batman! Yet another slope change. When the Primary
is fully extended, it can really only go in the opposite direction
unless signal weight is extreme.
Dec
7: 1:15pm
The
Primary has turned back up. Unless signal weight turns very
strongly positive, it's doubtful an enter long signal can be issued
as the Change value is very low.
Dec
7: 12:30pm Slope Change Down Confirmed
The
Slope Change has confirmed, the trading model is neutral. Very
quiet out there today.
12:37:
Signal weight has turned more strongly positive at +726 and
we could see a slope change back up. An old saying seems to
apply today "never short a dull market".
Dec
7: 12:19pm Early Slope Change Down signal issued
An early
slope change down/early exit long signal has issued that will confirm
at 12:30pm if signal weight is less than +410
Dec
7: 11:30am
Signal
weight +384, the Change -22, TTXSlope=0.5. We'll get an early
slope change down that will confirm this bar if signal weight is
less than +140. Very quiet day.
Dec
7: 10:30am
Signal
weight more positive at +800, the Change now -7.
Dec
7: Opening Read
Signal
weight weakly positive at +283, the Change -40, TTXSlope=1.7 bars.
Dec
4: Closing Read
We can
expect a slope change down on Monday as the level of the Primary
is now approaching extended levels. The increase in volatility
on Friday was a function of exogenous events. During such
times, trading skill and experience trump any sort of software based
analytic, including ours. Always watch signal weight and expect
price to resolve back up in the direction of the Primary.
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