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Dec
18: Closing Read Early Slope Change Issued
Nothing
like an end of day end of week signal. Obviously, Monday's
opening signal weight will determine if we get a confirmation of
the slope change as they cannot confirm at the end of a day. The
trend of the Secondary is still up and hence if we do get a slope
change, we'll also get an early enter long Monday morning as well.
Dec 18: 1:40pm
Today is a very good example of why we shouldn't watch price, but rather watch signal weight and then view price movements within that perspective.
If you just looked at the price bars today on the chart below, you'd think to yourself.. "price opened
flat, dropped , made new lows for the cycle then rallied a bit from the lows".
Well, that would be a mistaken impression wouldn't it? Price
didn't open flat, it was actually up and was reduced by 59 cents
because of the ex-dividend.
If we looked at the Primary, we'd think to ourselves, "we had a slope change down yesterday hence we can expect price to make a series of lower lows and lower highs until the Primary changes slope again so we aren't long in our trading accounts until then."
This would be a proper impression which would determine our expectations and thus allow us to set our trading accordingly. The Delineator is a filter and a process. Price is the dependent variable, signal weight is the independent variable. The trend in signal weight determines the trend in price. Trading skill does the rest.
Signal weight has turned back weakly positive.
Dec
18: 12:10pm
Signal
weight weakly negative at -476, the Change +14 as price makes new
lows for the day.
Dec
18: 11:32am
A possible
bug in the software. Please let me know if anyone's program
just issued another early enter short signal at 11:32am.
Update:
This problem has been tracked to my computer and another Internet
interruption.
Dec
18: 11am
Signal
weight +8 and any possible slope change has been pushed out to at
least Monday unless signal weight turns strongly positive again.
The Primary has crossed zero and realistically we should expect
it to complete a 'normal' down cycle. However, I doubt that
the set of chevron ups around 109 will be broken on this cycle unless
pushed by exogenous events.
Dec
18: 10:25am
It totally
slipped my mind this week that SPY would go ex-dividend. Typically,
I avoid trading when this happens because if you're short you pay
the amount, if you're long you get it but then owe the tax on what
is essentially already your money. While I very much doubt
that anyone took the short signal yesterday because of the position
of the Secondary, it nonetheless should be something you are all
aware of. SPY goes ex on the 3rd Thursday of each quarter
end. If you have any questions on this, please let me know.
I'll make it a point to be more attentive of this next year.
Dec
18: 10am
Signal
weight +842, the Change +98, TTXSlope=3 bars. The Primary
will cross zero shortly and will probably flatten later in the day
unless signal weight turns very strongly positive. SPY went
ex-dividend by .59 cents this morning which distorts the price somewhat.
Dec
18: Opening Read
SPY
went ex-dividend by .59 cents this morning.
Signal
weight +965, the Change +117, TTXSlope=3.42. It will take
several hours to turn the slope up.
Dec
17: Closing Read
At the
close, signal weight -1344, the Change zero. Tomorrow, positive
signal weight will begin to turn the Primary up but it will take
many hours as the Slope value is -517. The short signal went
into and out of confirmation several times during the day as very
strongly negative signal weight was needed to turn the Secondary
down. (There's a bad datapoint during the 2:30pm bar which
shows a range that is too great. It should get fixed tomorrow.)
Dec
17: 2:45pm
The
Change now only -10 hence the Slope has almost reached its maximum
level.
Dec
17: 1:20pm
Signal
weight -1621, the Change -39 and the signal back in confirmation.
The gap from 12/9 was filled during the 1pm bar at 110.08.
Dec
17: 11am
A dual
signal, exit long enter short, was issued at 10:30am @ 110.54. With
signal weight now at -1258, the short signal is already out of confirmation
as the Secondary has flipped back up.
Dec
17: 9:50
At the
moment, the Secondary is fractionally down. If the slope change
down confirms, we may also get an early enter short signal as well.
Given the level of signal weight needed to flip the Secondary
down, any short signal could easily go out of confirmation quickly.
Dec
17: Opening Read Early Slope Change Down Signal
issued
Negative
signal weight of -1544 at the open has generated an early slope
change down signal that will confirm if signal weight closes this
bar at -1520 or more.
Dec
16: Closing Read
Not
at all surprised that the morning's gains were erased as soon as
the Change approached zero even closing with +880 signal weight.
Tomorrow, any negative signal weight will quickly reverse
the Primary.
Dec
16: 12:30pm Enter Long Signal Issued at SPY 111.98
The
signal has confirmed. Personally, I'd prefer to avoid the
signal and instead short any series of expansion bars to higher
prices especially when the Change goes negative. Certainly
not the trading model but remember, the model exists so that users
can learn how to use the Delineator and predict its motion by understanding
the relationship between signal weight and the value of the Slope...your
trading skills do the rest. I never intended the model to
be the 'best' way to use the Delineator...only the best way to learn
how to use it.
I'll
be gone the rest of the day.
Dec
16: 12pm Early Enter Issued
Dec
16: 11:30am Slope Change Up confirmed
The
slope change has confirmed. An early enter long signal is
likely during the next hour as long as signal weight remains near
its present level.
Dec
16: 11am Early Slope Change Up signal issued
The
early slope change has triggered and will confirm this bar if signal
weight exceeds +1200. It's possible we'll also see an early
enter long signal but I'd also expect to see the Change near single
digits when it does unless signal weight is above +2000. If
you look back over the last few months at periods when the Primary
turns back up from near +5000, you'll notice that any price moves
quickly evaporate as the Primary cannot sustain itself from such
high levels without turning back down quickly.
I'll
be away from the screens after 1:30pm for the rest of the day as
I have business away.
Dec
16: 10:30am
Signal
weight has moderated somewhat, but enough to push out an early slope
change.
Dec
16: 10am
Signal
weight holding +1640. We can expect an early slope change
up signal at the next bar. As users know, I don't much care
for periods when the Primary turns back on itself from an already
high (or low) level as long or short signals generated typically
fail due to the fact that any moderation in signal weight strong
affects the value of the Primary.
Dec
16: Opening Read
Very
strong positive signal weight of +1665, the Change +89, TTXSlope=1.55
bars. Another slope change back up is likely today with such
strong signal weight.
Dec
15: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained modestly negative most of the day, closing at -693,
the Change -28. I expect this down cycle to be similar to
the previous one in duration and magnitude as we're stuck in a range
between 112 and 109.
Dec
15: 1:30pm
Signal
weight only weakly negative at -367, the Change -26.
Dec
15: 11:30am Slope Change Down Confirmed
Signal
weight weakly negative but enough to confirm the slope change down
on the Primary. This next down cycle on the Primary should
last 2-3 days. As the slope of the Secondary is up, no short
signal is expected unless signal weight exceeds -1980.
The
last two weeks of the year typically trade thin as compared to the
rest of the year. Personally, I make no more taxable trades
after December 15th and confine all of my trading to my non-taxable
accounts. I also rarely trade during the last week of the
year as I would prefer to enjoy the break and take some time off.
Dec
15: 11am Slope Change Down Not Confirmed
Signal
weight zero, the slope change did not confirm. It will confirm
at 11:30 if signal weight is less than +420. The opening gap
has been filled.
Dec
15: 10:30am Early Exit Long signal issued
As expected,
an early exit long/early slope change down signal has issued that
will confirm at 11am if signal weight is greater than -220.
Dec
15: 10am
Signal
weight slightly less negative at -965. An early exit signal
will trigger this bar if signal weight exceeds -1480, otherwise
next bar.
Dec
15: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened at -1160, the Change -124, Slope +119. TTXSlope=.98
bars so at this level of signal weight we can expect an early exit
long/early slope change down signal within an hour. As the
Secondary is up and needs -1980 signal weight to turn down, no short
signal is expected today.
Dec
14: Closing Read
Signal
weight expanded a bit further during the last hour. With the
Slope at +239, negative signal weight of -1000 or more tomorrow
will turn the Primary down rather quickly. Once again, the
Secondary and the Primary are at opposite sides of their cycles.
Dec
14: 2:40pm
Signal
weight +1300, the up cycle continues as price nears 112. With
the Change now flatlining, we know that it will take increasing
signal weight to keep the Primary rising.
Dec
14: 12:30pm
Signal
weight back near the highs of the day as is price. I'm off
to the gym, next post in a few hours.
Dec
14: 11:30am
SPY
traded to 111.37, 7 cents from 'formally' closing the gap but close
enough. Signal weight has since rebounded to +1030, the Change
zero. Until signal weight turns negative, we should continue
to expect price to resolve higher and test the highs from last week.
Dec
14: 10am
Signal
weight moderating somewhat, +886, the Change -6. Seems very
quiet.
Dec
14: Opening Read
Signal
weight opened +1346, the Change +18 and the up cycle continues.
Another fine gap opening as SPY traded to 111.88 at the open
achieving the profit target in case anyone was still following that
signal.
Dec
11: Closing Read
Signal
weight moderated throughout most of the day, ending at +1005 near
the close, the Change +2. As long as the Primary continues
to rise, our next targets should be a retest of the highs near 112.
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